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The big election losers? Corbyn’s Labour enemies
Amidst a predictably middling set of UK election results, only one faction emerged as clear losers – the substantial number of MPs, journalists and prominent Labour supporters who are implacably opposed to Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn is not going anywhere in the short-term. These results were as good as could have been expected, one year after…
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How long can Jeremy Corbyn survive?
There has been much talk in the USA about the Republicans committing electoral suicide and it seems the phenomenon has spread to the UK Left, with the Labour Party seemingly hell-bent on implosion. Ahead of key elections across the UK on Thursday, Labour are in a terrible place. Ken Livingstone’s suspension amid accusations of anti-semitism…
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The 10 best political betting heats of all-time
As the global betting industry evolves, ever more diverse markets are coming on stream, involving subject matters worlds apart from the racetrack, roulette wheel or football stadium. To some, politics is a matter of life or death. To others, its a golden opportunity to make money from predicting elections, leadership contests or even which currency…
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Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn show outsiders are in fashion
Party elites and mainstream media have lost touch with grassroots opinion Besides the fact they dominated headlines on either side of the Atlantic during 2015, few observers of UK and US politics will find much in common between Donald Trump and Jeremy Corbyn. Especially if they support either of them. However, regardless of the stark differences…
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Debate: Does Oldham disaster signal UKIP’s imminent demise?
If they can’t compete in winnable by-elections, how can they progress? Hands up. I could not have called the Oldham by-election more wrong. Like many others, I thought at the very least UKIP would at least give Labour a close fight, so the scale of their victory was a huge shock. Different people with different…
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UKIP must be the value bet to win Oldham
Turnout will be pivotal, and recent history bodes ill for Labour on that score In general, by-elections are the hardest political markets to predict. Opinion polls are even less reliable than usual, asking a mid-term question that only a small minority of engaged voters have spent more than a few minutes considering. Recent UK by-elections have…
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Markets turn against Jeremy Corbyn as Labour’s crisis deepens
Defeat in this week’s by-election could prove a tipping point for controversial leader After another terrible week for Labour, Betfair markets are turning fast against the party and their new leader Jeremy Corbyn. Corbyn is now rated only 17% likely to lead Labour into the 2020 General Election, at odds of 6.2. On the Betfair Sportsbook,…
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PMQs: Corbyn changes the conversation
A good start, but the new leader’s fundamental problems were clear to see It is my confident prediction that more people watched this afternoon’s PMQs than ever before. Compared to the usual, mostly ignored, often derided piece of theatre, Jeremy Corbyn’s debut was genuinely a hot topic of conversation this morning. People from outside the political…
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Corbyn confounds media derision with 24/1 win
Although the profits were ensured weeks ago via a series of cover bets, today’s confirmation of Jeremy Corbyn as the next Labour leader was nevertheless a particularly satisfying moment. A vindication of my early tip, at which stage Corbyn was the unconsidered 24/1 outsider. A devastating blow for the credibility of the Westminster Village talking…
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Jeremy Corbyn tipped early at 24/1!
SOUTHAMPTON, ENGLAND – AUGUST 25: Labour Leadership Candidate Jeremy Corbyn applauds as he speaks at a rally for supporters at the Hilton at the Ageas Bowl on August 25, 2015 in Southampton, England. Jeremy Corbyn remains the bookiesÕ favourite to win the Labour leadership contest which will be announced on September 12 after the ballots…