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UK General Election – How will Labour fare?
This article first appeared at gambling.com on 3rd December. With a fortnight of campaigning left, there’s no doubt Labour are in a very bad place. On current estimates derived from YouGov’s MRP model, they will lose 51 seats, handing the Tories a majority of 68. As always in political betting on elections, remember to treat such projections…
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UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 10: Ten targets that would propel SNP to 2015 heights
Ochil and South Perthshire Click here for latest live odds This is another constituency that voted for different parties in the last three general elections – the Tories came from third last time, aided by the Labour vote falling 8%. This share probably correlates with Unionist fears of independence and a 40% Leave vote. The…
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How to bet on the 2019 UK General Election
Back in March, I recommended a bet on the UK holding a General Election in 2019 at odds of +176 (7/4). That bet went to the wire before ultimately winning – the election will be held in less than two weeks, on December 12. As always it is a huge betting heat, involving hundreds of different markets.…
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UK General Election: Overview and betting strategy
This article first appeared at The Hub, on Monday 25th November Last month, I explained how the United Kingdom’s Brexit impasse had prompted a General Election, scheduled for 12th December. Now, halfway through the campaign, let’s consider the hundreds of markets available on Betfair. All signals point towards a thumping Conservative win. They are between…
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General Election Constituency Guide Part 2: The ten most vulnerable Labour seats to a Tory advance
Kensington Click here for latest live odds Scene of a famous upset in 2017, Kensington is one of the most exciting seats of this election. Labour’s majority is a miniscule 20 but the Tories are by no means certain to win, despite their improved national position. Former Tory minister Sam Gwimah – who quit over…
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UK General Election Betting – Too early to assume Farage has landed a decisive blow
The last five years of madness have seen one political betting upset after another. One month out from the election, outsider backers have another to consider. The Conservatives are available to lay at just [1.07] to win Most Seats. Labour are 18.0 to back. The reasons are obvious. They’re double-digits behind in the polls and,…
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Why this is the most exciting and unpredictable General Election ever
This article was first published on Thursday 6th November for betting.betfair.com. If the first day is any sort of guide, we are set for another extraordinary election campaign, packed with drama and uncertainty. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives may appear – according to the polls – to be storming towards another term and perhaps a majority, but…
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UK General Election: Seven known unknowns heading into the campaign
This article first appeared on 4th November 2019, at betting.betfair.com Everything about the Brexit Party The idea of a formal pact between the Tories and Brexit Party looks doomed after the latter confirmed their intention to fight every constituency. It remains to be seen whether an informal pact, where they target Labour-held Leave seats that…
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General Election Preview – Boris poised to batter split opposition
This article first appeared at gambling.com on 2nd November 2019. Whilst the analysis still applies, I must update developments. I’ve added the following two bets which counter-act the No Overall Majority position. (In a dream scenario, both the Tory seats bet and No Overall Majority could win!) Also, the Brexit Party are set to run…
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A December general election could mark the demise of Remainer resistance
This article first appeared yesterday, 29th October 2019, at betting.betfair.com The speculation is all but over – there will be a general election in December. The exact date will be confirmed this afternoon. A market that has seen various different months and years trade at odds-on throughout this chaotic Brexit process is finally all but…