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Which options will emerge from Brexit mega-ballot?
This article was first published on 27th March 2019 for betting.betfair.com In the most extraordinary series of events since the referendum, Brexit could take any number of different turns over the next few days. Having seized control of the parliamentary timetable in a bid to break the deadlock, MPs will debate and vote on a…
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Newport West By-Election Betting Preview
This article was first published on March 22nd, for gambling.com In this remarkable era for political betting, the word ‘certainty’ should be used with extreme caution. Nevertheless, it is hard to construct an argument for how taking Betway’s 1/6 about Labour winning the Newport West By-election won’t yield a swift 16% profit. Scheduled for April 4th, the by-election…
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Michael Gove’s plans are falling into place
This article was first written on 25th March 2019 for betting.betfair.com If anyone was still in doubt that Brexit is, fundamentally, a Conservative Party soap opera, the weekend’s events surely confirmed it. As voices from across the political spectrum talked of ‘national crisis and ‘humiliation’, the Tory civil war intensified. Various ministers linked with looming…
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Delayed or not, a no deal Brexit remains highly plausible
This piece was first published on March 5th, 2019 The chances of the UK leaving the European Union without a deal in 25 days time remain extremely low, according to Betfair markets. That dramatic outcome can be backed at 7.8 – equivalent to 13%. At 5.6 (18%), an on-time Brexit is only rated slightly likelier.…
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How will The Independent Group fare?
This article was first published on February 18th 2019, for www.betting.betfair.com It can’t be quite described as another political earthquake, given that it has been the subject of speculation for years and intensely in recent days. Nevertheless, another week in UK politics has started with a bombshell. Seven Labour MPs have quit the party and…
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Four scenarios that could produce a snap general election
This piece was first published on February 28th 2019 for www.casino.org Last month, I explained how Brexit – and the convoluted parliamentary process of delivering it – was generating countless political betting markets. With just 39 days until the UK is scheduled to leave the EU, nobody is any clearer how or if it will happen…
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Brexit Update: Labour’s clearer plan could prove significant
This piece was originally published on February 8th, 2019 for betting.betfair.com After months of uncertainty and speculation regarding several different outcomes to Brexit, we can all but rule one out. There will be no second referendum in 2020. As Donald Tusk said before his now infamous criticism of Brexiters without a plan, there is no…
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Who Would Win a Snap General Election?
Literally nobody knows where politics is heading. One way or another, voters may well be called to the polls at some point in 2019. With the odds at political betting sites about a second referendum drifting, a general election seems likelier. Labour want one, are committed to pursuing it and have been on an election footing since…
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No Deal Brexit is now rated likelier than ever
Wouldn’t it be nice to have some answers to all the Brexit questions we’ve been asking forever? Will it happen and if so, on time? If not, will there be a second referendum or a snap election? Yesterday’s famous day of amendments in parliament was meant to at least start to resolve them. It didn’t.…
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Who will succeed Jeremy Corbyn as Labour leader?
Never in UK politics has betting for the leadership of the two main parties been so wide-open. Not even close. However while the race to be the Next Conservative Leader garners endless chatter, Next Labour Leader barely gets a mention nowadays. This could be the opportune moment to pay attention. With Brexit threatening to unravel the…