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Lib Dem demise should ensure a Tory majority
Over the course of the campaign, this election has been likened to many from the past. Inevitably, comparisons were made with Margaret Thatcher, with the early and betting implying Theresa May would even improve on the Iron Lady’s 1983 personal best – a majority of 144. Even if the Tories underperformed, their 1987 majority of…
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General Election 2017: 5 dynamics to follow during the TV debates
As we enter the closing stretch, the time has come for those make-or-break TV moments, starting tonight with The Battle for Number Ten on Sky News. Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn will face a grilling from Jeremy Paxman and a studio audience. Then on Wednesday, BBC host a seven-way debate. This will involve the leaders…
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How far can Labour’s comeback go?
It remains a longshot, but in 12 days time the political prediction industry could be in meltdown. Donald Trump may have produced the biggest upset of all-time but even that shock would pale into insignificance compared to Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister. Three weeks ago that eventuality was rated less than 3% likely on our…
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General Election 2017: 5 indicators of the state of play
1) Theresa May’s honeymoon is well and truly over Back at the start of this election campaign, I mooted the idea that the enormous Tory poll leads were unrealistic – a peak moment of Theresa May’s long honeymoon with the voters. After a week of manifesto chaos and sliding poll numbers, it is definitely over.…
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Why Theresa May will eventually regret calling this election
The Prime Minister should count her lucky stars that elections aren’t determined by manifestos. After dominating the last week’s news cycle, their effect threatens to change British politics. Labour have enjoyed their best week in years, while yesterday’s Tory launch seemed to achieve nothing besides generate criticism from both left and right. Labour are surging…
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Labour’s radical manifesto can avert total meltdown
Thursday was rather odd. One week on from historically bad local election results, with national polls pointing to a similar disaster on June 8th, Betfair punters moved Labour’s odds in a positive direction. Granted, that improvement was extremely marginal and doesn’t even begin to signal a change in the likely general election result, but the…
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Will Labour unite around a Cooper coronation?
In the aftermath of electoral defeat, it is conventional for the main opposition to pick a new leader. Especially if the party goes backwards. That has been the case after every election since 1987, whether Conservative or Labour. The last to stay in post was Neil Kinnock, uncontroversially given that his efforts had just yielded…
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Gorton offers beleaguered Corbyn some respite
In the wake of last Thursday’s by-election double-header, the weekend political news cycle primarily concerned the future of Jeremy Corbyn. After losing Copeland after 80 years of Labour rule and holding ultra-safe Stoke-on-Trent Central on a diminished majority, no rational observer could deny the party’s grim mid-term position. However if his internal enemies hoped these…
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Final thoughts and predictions on tonight’s by-elections
A critical, changing feature of by-elections is that polls are few and far between nowadays. When we do hear about one, it tends to have been commissioned by a faction with an obvious agenda – such as the Labour Leave survey that suggested UKIP were on course to win Stoke easily. Polls have their weaknesses,…
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Tories popular ahead of by-election double-header
Phrases such as ‘must-win’ and ‘do-or-die’ have often been used to define the challenge facing parties in UK by-elections. Rarely, however, could such terms have legitimately applied to two different leaders. Yet one bad result on Thursday night could prove ruinous for either Jeremy Corbyn or Paul Nuttall. It is hard to recall a night…