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Four takeaways from the UK General Election
This article first appeared on 16th December, for betting.betfair.com The Exit Poll emerges triumphant but is imperfect This may sound strange, having spent the last six weeks totally immersed in it, but this was quite a boring election. At least from a betting perspective. Once the Tories opened up an early lead, victory never looked…
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UK General Election Analysis
This piece was first published on Tuesday 10th December for gambling.com In previewing this general election over several months, I’ve put up two positions available on the political betting sites – Conservatives to win most seats at 4-5, No Overall Majority at 4-6. According to the betting, the first is nailed on at 1-20 with BetVictor, with the…
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How will the Liberal Democrats fare?
If I could take back one recent prediction, it regards Jo Swinson and the Lib Dems. When this campaign started, I thought they would benefit from extra exposure, particularly for their Revoke stance on Brexit – divisive for sure, but clearer than Labour’s muddled offering. 20-25% seemed realistic. As it transpires, the Lib Dem in the last…
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UK General Election Constituency Guide Part 10: Ten targets that would propel SNP to 2015 heights
Ochil and South Perthshire Click here for latest live odds This is another constituency that voted for different parties in the last three general elections – the Tories came from third last time, aided by the Labour vote falling 8%. This share probably correlates with Unionist fears of independence and a 40% Leave vote. The…
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UK General Election: Overview and betting strategy
This article first appeared at The Hub, on Monday 25th November Last month, I explained how the United Kingdom’s Brexit impasse had prompted a General Election, scheduled for 12th December. Now, halfway through the campaign, let’s consider the hundreds of markets available on Betfair. All signals point towards a thumping Conservative win. They are between…
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General Election Constituency Guide Part 1: Ten Tory seats that could fall to the Lib Dems
Richmond Park Click here for latest live odds Considering the Lib Dems are polling at twice the total they achieved in 2017, failure to win this top target would be catastrophic. Richmond Park is a wealthy constituency on the edges of West London that voted by 71/29 for Remain in 2016. It has transferred between…
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UK General Election Betting – Too early to assume Farage has landed a decisive blow
The last five years of madness have seen one political betting upset after another. One month out from the election, outsider backers have another to consider. The Conservatives are available to lay at just [1.07] to win Most Seats. Labour are 18.0 to back. The reasons are obvious. They’re double-digits behind in the polls and,…
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Why this is the most exciting and unpredictable General Election ever
This article was first published on Thursday 6th November for betting.betfair.com. If the first day is any sort of guide, we are set for another extraordinary election campaign, packed with drama and uncertainty. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives may appear – according to the polls – to be storming towards another term and perhaps a majority, but…
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UK General Election: Seven known unknowns heading into the campaign
This article first appeared on 4th November 2019, at betting.betfair.com Everything about the Brexit Party The idea of a formal pact between the Tories and Brexit Party looks doomed after the latter confirmed their intention to fight every constituency. It remains to be seen whether an informal pact, where they target Labour-held Leave seats that…
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General Election Preview – Boris poised to batter split opposition
This article first appeared at gambling.com on 2nd November 2019. Whilst the analysis still applies, I must update developments. I’ve added the following two bets which counter-act the No Overall Majority position. (In a dream scenario, both the Tory seats bet and No Overall Majority could win!) Also, the Brexit Party are set to run…