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US Election: Will protests and violence help Trump?
“One of several plausible explanations for this monster gamble is the violence in Kenosha and Portland.”
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US Election: Trump ends convention season on a betting high
“Both previous incumbents to enjoy a ‘double convention bounce’ went on to win – George W Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2012.”
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Why Do The Election Odds Differ From Polls? Eight Explanations
“US elections are incredibly dramatic affairs. Scandal and smear campaigns are guaranteed.”
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Democrat Convention: Biden’s Big Tent is Very Smart Strategy
“I’m particularly struck by Kasich’s support, as it is coming from a frontline politician. A former Governor of a bellwether state – Ohio.”
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US Election: Trump v Biden Betting Update
“In a more conventional two-horse race than 2016, Trump needs extra voters. There is nothing in the numbers to suggest he suddenly wins over opponents who strongly disapprove in record numbers, consistently.”
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Electoral College Betting: Biden Is On Course For A Landslide
These maths are precisely why it pays to keep up with the state-by-state picture, and to understand the relation to the outright odds.
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Why Re-fighting the Last Election Rarely Makes Sense
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 29th July 2020 Nate Silver has some rather unflattering comments to make about the rationale of betting markets. No doubt the Fivethirtyeight pundit is responding to the sustained mis-match between the 2020 odds and polling models. Current Betfair odds imply a 62% chance of victory for Joe Biden.…
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How previous presidential elections panned out during the final 100 days
2012 was the direct opposite of 2016. Indeed it goes a long way towards explaining why there was such confidence in Clinton’s poll lead four years later.
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Who should, and who will, be Joe Biden’s VP pick?
Susan Rice would cement the Biden ticket’s brand as a return to the normality of that relatively popular administration, and is experienced enough to assume the top job.
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How Bad, And What Are The Implications Of Trump’s Legal Troubles?
The situation regarding New York is not crystal clear. These Trump investigations are well developed – delayed for a year by these legal challenges – and both Deutsche Bank and Mazars immediately confirmed they would comply.