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Six Reasons Why The 2020 Election Will Be Nothing Like 2016
This article first appeared at gamblerspick.com on 7th July 2020 Exactly 17 weeks today, US voters head to the polls for what appears, right now, to be their most one-sided election of the 21st century. The Economist/Yougov rate Joe Biden 90% likely to win, compared to a meagre 10% for Donald Trump. Betting signals, however,…
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Mike Pence Won’t Be The Last Outsider Gamble of 2020
This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 29th June 2020 Two months ago, the Betfair odds implied there was a 10% chance that the Next President would be somebody other than Donald Trump or Joe Biden. Despite no challenge materialising to either and the latter securing a majority of delegates to become the presumptive Democrat…
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Biden Moves Clearly Ahead Across All Indicators
There are, of course, more than four months until polling day, for Trump to turn things around. As we are constantly reminded, remember what happened in 2016. Biden, however, is considerably further ahead – by around 5% – in the polls than Clinton was at this stage.
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An Avalance of Scandal Could Bury Trump
Trump is in very serious trouble…Both he and down-ballot Republicans are staring at catastrophic defeat.
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Trump toxicity could see Republicans Swept away By Another Blue Wave
“November’s elections will be a referendum on him and if so, his dire ratings should deeply alarm Republicans.”
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Extensive Interview on the 2020 US Election With Betfair Australia
“Part 4 goes deep on the 2020 Election. Why I’m backing Biden and in which states he is particularly fancied”.
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Democrat VP Update: Val Demings is Biden’s Perfect Running Mate
“The case for Val Demings is impeccable. A working-class black woman, who rose to become Orlando police chief – in the most important swing state of Florida.”
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Trump’s Authoritarianism and Divisive Tactics Are a Gift to Biden
“Voters are deeply unimpressed by Trump’s leadership and management of the twin crises sweeping America. According to ABC/Ipsos, 66% disapprove of how he is handling the Floyd protests and 60% of coronavirus.”
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Betfair Masterclass Series Part 2: Tips and Strategies to Bet on Politics
The history of leadership contests is littered with bad early favourites. A classic mistake is to overstate the importance of early polls. When members or supporters are first asked, name recognition will be uneven.
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Five Narratives That Could Determine the Election
This article first appeared at gamblerspick.com on 19th May 2020 Both the polls and betting odds are remarkably stable. According to the Betfair Exchange, Donald Trump has a 48% chance of re-election at odds of 2.06, compared to 42% for Joe Biden at 2.38. Meanwhile, the constant swirl of rumour and conspiracy surrounding both major…