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Will Coronavirus derail Trump’s re-election bid?
Sport may be cancelled but politics carries on as usual. In fact coronavirus is generating even greater focus on the 2020 US Presidential Election. Betfair markets souring on Trump re-election Over the past fortnight, the odds about Donald Trump winning a second term have drifted markedly. From a low of [1.64], equivalent to a 61%…
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US Election – Who will be Joe Biden’s VP Pick?
This article first appeared at Betfair Australia’s The Hub, on 13th March 2020 Following another slew of victories for Joe Biden on Super Tuesday 2, the Democrat Nomination looks all but finished as a betting heat. The former Vice President is now a mere $1.09 for the nomination and $2.28 for the presidency. Bernie Sanders…
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Super Tuesday and Democrat Nomination Betting and Analysis
This article first appeared on 3rd March 2020 at betting.betfair.com The eve of the biggest date of primary season could barely have been more dramatic, both in terms of events and their effect on Betfair markets. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have both withdrawn and endorsed Joe Biden. Biden the new favourite after day of…
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South Carolina Primary: Biden poised to unite the anti-Sanders vote
This piece was first published on Saturday 29th February 2020 at betting.betfair.com This year is the third time that Joe Biden has run for the presidency. If the signals on Betfair for tonight’s South Carolina Primary are correct, he is about to finally win a race. Biden expected to land big win in SC The…
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Nevada Caucuses Betting Tips: Sanders set to open up big lead as Bloomberg bombs
This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on Friday February 21st It’s often said that TV debates can’t move the needle anymore and that has largely been the case during several months of the Democrat primaries. Michael Bloomberg’s debut in Nevada, however, just wrecked that theory, at least if impacting betting markets is the criteria. Bloomberg…
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Trump’s path to victory is opening – a Democrat civil war
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 17th February 2020 Long-term readers may be shocked. After five years covering the Trump beat with incessant negativity, only pausing briefly to cut my losses on THAT night in 2016, I’m coming around to the idea that the nightmare may not end in November. There is a way…
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Democrat Nominee: Where do we stand after New Hampshire?
When writing last week’s analysis, five Democrat candidates were trading lower than $100 for the presidency. There are still five but we’ve had a swap – Amy Klobuchar’s odds have crashed to $80 from around $270, while Elizabeth Warren is out to $200. From odds-on favourite in October, she’s now dismissed at $140 to win…
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New Hampshire Primary Betting – Sanders winning but watch out for Klobuchar surge
Of 3979 delegates up for grabs during the Democrat nomination process, a mere 41 were decided in Iowa. Once again though, the ‘Hawkeye State’ demonstrated the importance of going first in primary season as events in that chaotic race have reshaped the narrative and left several campaigns on life support. Tuesday’s New Hampshire Primary could…
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Democrat Nominee Betting and Analysis – Where do we stand post-Iowa?
BERNIE SANDERS Nomination $2.62 Presidency: $6.2 Although Sanders didn’t have the clear victory that the betting projected in Iowa, he definitely emerges as the front-runner. He’s trading below $1.20 and $1.50 to win the next races in New Hampshire and Nevada respectively. If he delivers in both, he would surely be heavily odds-on for the…
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Iowa Caucuses – Bernie Sanders starts ahead but can we trust the polls?
The 2020 US Election starts tonight, with the Iowa Caucuses. As always, Betfair markets will stay open throughout the counting process until a winner (most delegates) is declared. It could well be a very long night! Polls contain huge margin of error Polling signals are far from clear. The psephological and political betting communities were…