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How Political Betting Went Global During the Trump Era
The US Election is a huge betting market, lasting well over a year. With sports canceled amid the coronavirus, the 2020 Presidental Election may well be the biggest single betting event of the year. To many Americans, November’s general election feels like one of the most critical moments in the history of the Republic. The…
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Super Tuesday and Democrat Nomination Betting and Analysis
This article first appeared on 3rd March 2020 at betting.betfair.com The eve of the biggest date of primary season could barely have been more dramatic, both in terms of events and their effect on Betfair markets. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have both withdrawn and endorsed Joe Biden. Biden the new favourite after day of…
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South Carolina Primary: Biden poised to unite the anti-Sanders vote
This piece was first published on Saturday 29th February 2020 at betting.betfair.com This year is the third time that Joe Biden has run for the presidency. If the signals on Betfair for tonight’s South Carolina Primary are correct, he is about to finally win a race. Biden expected to land big win in SC The…
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Nevada Caucuses Betting Tips: Sanders set to open up big lead as Bloomberg bombs
This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on Friday February 21st It’s often said that TV debates can’t move the needle anymore and that has largely been the case during several months of the Democrat primaries. Michael Bloomberg’s debut in Nevada, however, just wrecked that theory, at least if impacting betting markets is the criteria. Bloomberg…
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Trump’s path to victory is opening – a Democrat civil war
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 17th February 2020 Long-term readers may be shocked. After five years covering the Trump beat with incessant negativity, only pausing briefly to cut my losses on THAT night in 2016, I’m coming around to the idea that the nightmare may not end in November. There is a way…
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Democrat Nominee: Where do we stand after New Hampshire?
When writing last week’s analysis, five Democrat candidates were trading lower than $100 for the presidency. There are still five but we’ve had a swap – Amy Klobuchar’s odds have crashed to $80 from around $270, while Elizabeth Warren is out to $200. From odds-on favourite in October, she’s now dismissed at $140 to win…
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Democrat Nominee Betting and Analysis – Where do we stand post-Iowa?
BERNIE SANDERS Nomination $2.62 Presidency: $6.2 Although Sanders didn’t have the clear victory that the betting projected in Iowa, he definitely emerges as the front-runner. He’s trading below $1.20 and $1.50 to win the next races in New Hampshire and Nevada respectively. If he delivers in both, he would surely be heavily odds-on for the…
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Democrat Presidential Primaries 2020 – An Overview
What are primaries and how do they work? Presidential primaries are the electoral process to determine the candidates representing the main parties. Starting on February 3 and lasting several months, registered Democrats and would-be supporters in each state will vote for their preferred candidate. The winners and prominent performers in each race are duly awarded…
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Could a new political party crash the markets?
Across the West, political establishments are mired in a crisis of legitimacy. Outsider parties are thriving everywhere and conventional, career politicians struggle to convince or cut through in the social media age. Two of the most mature democracies produced historic political betting upsets when Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron gatecrashed the system. Trump and Macron…
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Iowa flips towards Trump as Bloomberg threatens a gamechanger
Former NYC Mayor’s mooted bid could alter calculations from all sides After another dramatic week on Betfair’s US Election markets, punters holding long-term positions about Donald Trump and former NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg have plenty to celebrate. With voting for the Iowa Caucus just a week away, opinion polls and markets have flip-flopped in favour…