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How previous presidential elections panned out during the final 100 days
2012 was the direct opposite of 2016. Indeed it goes a long way towards explaining why there was such confidence in Clinton’s poll lead four years later.
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Six famous leadership contest upsets
This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 1st April 2020 For weeks, the markets for Next Labour Leader and Next Deputy Labour Leader have been stagnant. It is assumed that Keir Starmer and Angela Rayner will win, as respective odds of [1.02] and [1.01] illustrate. I’ve no reason to expect an upset but were the…
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US Election – Who will be Joe Biden’s VP Pick?
This article first appeared at Betfair Australia’s The Hub, on 13th March 2020 Following another slew of victories for Joe Biden on Super Tuesday 2, the Democrat Nomination looks all but finished as a betting heat. The former Vice President is now a mere $1.09 for the nomination and $2.28 for the presidency. Bernie Sanders…
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Latest Donald Trump Impeachment Odds and Analysis
This article was first published for Betfair Australia’s “The Hub” on 11th October 2019 With just over a year until the 2020 election, Donald Trump is in turmoil. Since Nancy Pelosi announced an impeachment inquiry, the President has been beset by even more scandal than usual. His chance of re-election is falling, from 50% to…
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Five potential Republican primary challengers to Donald Trump
As if 2019 didn’t present enough problems for Donald Trump, there are indications that he is losing Republican support. Previously compliant Senators now oppose him on a range of issues – tariffs, troop withdrawals, the shutdown. Further opposition looms if he persists with plans to call a state of emergency over funding for his wall.…
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Romney must be opposed at short odds
There are many things that we should have learned about Donald Trump over the past 18 months – most of all that he routinely breaks political convention and is unpredictable. Which is why playing Betfair’s Next Secretary of State market is both exciting and fraught with danger. Consider the last two incumbents – John Kerry and Hillary…
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Is it time to take #RecallTrump seriously?
As a gambler, one must always be mindful of talking up your own position. Of becoming too convinced by your own opinion that you can’t see the wood for the trees. I’ve been wrestling with this position for months, regarding the unprecedented, bizarre and increasingly ridiculous candidacy of Donald Trump. My longstanding opposition to Trump…
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New bets on the race to be Donald Trump’s VP
We are fast learning to expect the unconventional and unpredictable in politics, but it’s hard to remember any trickier market to play than this cycle’s Republican Vice Presidential Nominee. Quite simply, as with everything else about Donald Trump, normal rules need not apply. Normally, we would expect the presumptive nominee to pursue a balanced ticket, to…
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Stop Trump plot thickens with rules committee picks
A further significant development in the Republican nomination saga. We now know who will comprise the party’s Rules Committee, which will meet on July 14th to lay out the rules governing their convention four days later. They have the power to kill any Stop Trump moves stone dead, or bring them to life. It is a…
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Don’t believe the hype. Trump is not dominant. Yet.
The big stories on election betting markets this week have been (a) a series of massive upsets on Super Tuesday and (b) the ongoing uncertainty about just how likely Donald Trump is to be the Republican Nominee. As the Super Tuesday results came in, virtually the entire media bought into the same, simplistic narrative. That…