-
2019 UK Local Elections Review – Five takeaways
1 Tory losses far exceeded worst expectations In losing more than 1300 councillors, these results were unarguably awful for the Tories. Yes, they had a long way to fall and a backlash from Brexiters angry at their failure to deliver was predictable. But the scale defied the experts – the higher academic estimate noted in…
-
Will there be a new centrist party?
Ian Paisley of the DUP could become the first MP to lose his seat under the Recall Act, after being suspended from the House of Commons for failing to declare family holidays paid for by the Sri Lankan government. Under this relatively new law, if 10% of eligible voters in the constituency sign a petition,…
-
Six candidates for next UKIP leader
They may be polling below 2% and be all but wiped out in local government but you just can’t keep UKIP out of the headlines. Albeit for all the wrong reasons. With leader Henry Bolton clinging to power after an overwhelming vote of no confidence and serial resignations, a fourth leadership contest in less than…
-
Tories popular ahead of by-election double-header
Phrases such as ‘must-win’ and ‘do-or-die’ have often been used to define the challenge facing parties in UK by-elections. Rarely, however, could such terms have legitimately applied to two different leaders. Yet one bad result on Thursday night could prove ruinous for either Jeremy Corbyn or Paul Nuttall. It is hard to recall a night…
-
Debate: Does Oldham disaster signal UKIP’s imminent demise?
If they can’t compete in winnable by-elections, how can they progress? Hands up. I could not have called the Oldham by-election more wrong. Like many others, I thought at the very least UKIP would at least give Labour a close fight, so the scale of their victory was a huge shock. Different people with different…
-
UKIP must be the value bet to win Oldham
Turnout will be pivotal, and recent history bodes ill for Labour on that score In general, by-elections are the hardest political markets to predict. Opinion polls are even less reliable than usual, asking a mid-term question that only a small minority of engaged voters have spent more than a few minutes considering. Recent UK by-elections have…
-
UK Election films for Betfair Predicts
As content editor of the comprehensive Betfair Predicts coverage of the UK General Election, I made a series of 13 films alongside the former Lib Dem MP and broadcaster Lembit Opik, and the political biographer Mark Stuart, an academic at Nottingham University. Here are some of the highlights. I particularly enjoyed discussing UKIP, having successfully…