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Trump now rated likelier to leave early than not
For several weeks – roughly since the Charlottesville riots – the likelihood of Donald Trump failing to last a full term as President has consistently traded above 50% on Betfair markets. Reflecting our polarised times, in which anyone can create their own news bubble aligned with their politics, there is no shortage of confidence on…
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Stop Trump plot thickens with rules committee picks
A further significant development in the Republican nomination saga. We now know who will comprise the party’s Rules Committee, which will meet on July 14th to lay out the rules governing their convention four days later. They have the power to kill any Stop Trump moves stone dead, or bring them to life. It is a…
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Is this how the GOP plan to ditch Donald Trump?
Against a backdrop of never ending controversy and catastrophic poll numbers, we’ve been waiting to see if and how Donald Trump’s enemies would try to stop him at the convention. We may now have an answer to both. First, Paul Ryan said that House Republicans must go with their conscience when deciding whether to support…
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Could the GOP still block Donald Trump?
Just a week ago, Donald Trump’s improbable bid to be president was looking likelier than ever. Senior Republicans were uniting around him and his poll deficit was closing fast. Hillary Clinton drifted out to 1.58 in the Next President market. Now, after just a small taste of what his campaign will look like, the handwringing has…
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If you think Trump will be nominee, now is the time to bet
Cruz and Trump’s combined odds understate their chance It goes without saying that the political leaning of US states differs, and that results will therefore vary significantly between primaries. Yet basing betting strategy on that simple, easily attained knowledge will have yielded easy profits throughout this cycle. For example, since primary voting began, the best…
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Markets swing towards a contested convention
If one takes the view that the Republican Nominee can only be the candidate who earns the most delegates from the primaries, there is a rare opportunity to make money. Either Donald Trump or Ted Cruz will certainly emerge with the most delegates, yet their combined rating on the Betfair market is only 80%. Spread…
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Arizona could be the last chance to stop Trump
As in everything, the gap between success and failure can be painfully thin in both betting and politics. The Missouri primaries demonstrated precisely why betting on politics can be so much fun. The combination of an updating televised scorecard alongside moving betting markets is highly addictive and there aren’t many markets where you have to…
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Kasich won’t be VP, but here’s how he could become President
Since the outset of the anarchic cage fight otherwise known as the Republican Party primary process, John Kasich has been dismissed by betting markets as a rank outsider. That is beginning to change. After the latest debate in Michigan, the Ohio Governor is down to his lowest odds yet at 20.0 for the nomination, 40.0…
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Don’t believe the hype. Trump is not dominant. Yet.
The big stories on election betting markets this week have been (a) a series of massive upsets on Super Tuesday and (b) the ongoing uncertainty about just how likely Donald Trump is to be the Republican Nominee. As the Super Tuesday results came in, virtually the entire media bought into the same, simplistic narrative. That…
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Is it time to think the unthinkable?
With each day, Trump v Sanders looks likelier If the betting markets are any guide, the race for the Presidency looks like a six-runner race. Five if, like me, you think Jeb Bush is a no-hoper. Three of those five would represent a seismic shock to U.S. politics, almost unimaginable until recently. Significantly, the campaigns…