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Can Clinton maintain Betfair’s perfect record?
The predictive qualities of political betting markets have become an ever more salient talking point in recent years, based on a near perfect record in big elections. Since the inception of Betfair in 2001, the favourite from 100 days out to be Next President or party to win the most seats went on to win…
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Why the VP picks could matter more this time
The first stage of the US Presidential Election betting cycle is finally complete. With Donald Trump and Mike Pence confirmed as the Republican ticket last week in Cleveland, Hillary Clinton named Virginia Senator Tim Kaine as her running mate last night, ahead of the Democratic Convention in Philadelphia. While these veepstakes are always a hot…
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Donald Trump’s odds shorten again
The most unconventional and unlikely presidential candidate in US history just hit his highest rating yet in the race for the White House. In finally securing the Republican nomination, Donald Trump killed the hopes of numerous detractors and ended one of the most exciting and dramatic races in the history of political betting. In response,…
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As REMAIN strengthens, will the market be proved right again?
It would appear that, three days out from the EU Membership Referendum, the market is taking a definitive view. REMAIN has never ceded favouritism but, in the middle of last week, looked as though it might. However a slew of positive polling news for REMAIN and a popular sense that the mood was inching back…
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Hedge between markets for a great value Brexit trade
Trying to find a cheap, value punt in the Brexit markets has not been straightforward. So far as the main result market is concerned, the scope for short-term trading has been limited and taking a confident view involves a sizeable risk, in a referendum which is far from clear cut. Remain, for example, has traded…
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Front-runners to regain momentum in New York
When the primaries began well over two months ago, few expected both Republican and Democrat races would still be exciting betting heats by the time the process reached New York. Normally at this stage, the leading candidate is well on course to win a majority of delegates, and the latter primaries serve as a chance…
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If you think Trump will be nominee, now is the time to bet
Cruz and Trump’s combined odds understate their chance It goes without saying that the political leaning of US states differs, and that results will therefore vary significantly between primaries. Yet basing betting strategy on that simple, easily attained knowledge will have yielded easy profits throughout this cycle. For example, since primary voting began, the best…
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Markets strongly signal Clinton beating Trump
As one unique candidate continues to dominate headlines and divide opinion across the world, Betfair markets are delivering a clear verdict on how the Donald Trump saga will develop, and end. Trump is rated extremely likely to be the Republican Nominee but subsequently lose the General Election. Hillary Clinton is rated likelier than ever to…
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Will a busy weekend see more Super Tuesday style shocks?
Four days ago, Super Tuesday produced one of the most dramatic nights in the history of political betting, with two sub 1.03 chances going down as several results proved much closer than the polls or markets had suggested. Therefore, it is perhaps no surprise to see short-odds money-buyers a little more reluctant to wade in…
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Kasich won’t be VP, but here’s how he could become President
Since the outset of the anarchic cage fight otherwise known as the Republican Party primary process, John Kasich has been dismissed by betting markets as a rank outsider. That is beginning to change. After the latest debate in Michigan, the Ohio Governor is down to his lowest odds yet at 20.0 for the nomination, 40.0…