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The Six Biggest Betting Heats to Follow in 2022
My view is Johnson will resign around May, after tax, NI and energy price rises contribute towards a disastrous set of local election results.
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US Election Review – Result vindicates the betting signals
As regular readers will have noted, its been a few months since my last post. This was due to working non-stop during the US election run-in and a long overdue break once it became clear Biden had won. I wrote dozens of articles and contributed to numerous podcasts during that period for a wide variety…
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US Election: Trump ends convention season on a betting high
“Both previous incumbents to enjoy a ‘double convention bounce’ went on to win – George W Bush in 2004 and Obama in 2012.”
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How previous presidential elections panned out during the final 100 days
2012 was the direct opposite of 2016. Indeed it goes a long way towards explaining why there was such confidence in Clinton’s poll lead four years later.
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Next Tory Leader: Who Will Succeed Boris Johnson?
“Johnson’s approval ratings have fallen along with the government’s, regarding management of the crisis. Whereas he owed his job to being an undeniable electoral asset for the Tories, he could soon be a liability.”
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Biden Moves Clearly Ahead Across All Indicators
There are, of course, more than four months until polling day, for Trump to turn things around. As we are constantly reminded, remember what happened in 2016. Biden, however, is considerably further ahead – by around 5% – in the polls than Clinton was at this stage.
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Trump’s Authoritarianism and Divisive Tactics Are a Gift to Biden
“Voters are deeply unimpressed by Trump’s leadership and management of the twin crises sweeping America. According to ABC/Ipsos, 66% disapprove of how he is handling the Floyd protests and 60% of coronavirus.”
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Betfair Masterclass Series Part 2: Tips and Strategies to Bet on Politics
The history of leadership contests is littered with bad early favourites. A classic mistake is to overstate the importance of early polls. When members or supporters are first asked, name recognition will be uneven.
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US Election: If not Trump versus Biden, then whom?
“This cycle has been rife with rumours of a Democrat fix for months. That a brokered convention would result in the DNC imposing somebody who hadn’t even entered the primaries.”
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Extensive Interview For “The Political Trade” Podcast
Earlier this week, I enjoyed a long conversation with Jeff Joseph and Mike Reddy for “The Political Trade” – the podcast associated with Luckbox magazine. Our wide-ranging discussion involved the development and wider trends within political betting, as well of course as extensive analysis of the 2020 election. It was truly an honour to be…