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Brexit Latest: Is Labour’s position electoral suicide or smarter than first appears?
A core lesson of recent times is to never take political trends and outcomes for granted. To consider counter-intuitive arguments before betting on what appears to be obvious. For example, seven weeks before the 2017 general election, there was much talk about the end of the Labour Party. They lagged 20% behind in the polls,…
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Next UK General Election – Latest Thoughts
We still don’t know precisely when, but a UK General Election is imminent. William Hill offer a best price of 10/11 about it taking place in October, whereas Paddy Power are best at 15/8 about a November election. That small difference in the date is extremely significant. Indeed, punting on the result before we know the date is fraught…
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Interview for Business of Betting Podcast
This was a most enjoyable interview from earlier this year, with Jake Williams for his Business of Betting podcast. We discuss my route into political betting and becoming a professional gambler. Of particular relevance is our conversation regarding the 2020 election and how many extra variables we have to deal with nowadays, such as fake…
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Boris Johnson Premiership – What Happens Next?
This article first appeared on 22nd July 2019 at betting.betfair.com Outside of war, it is hard to imagine a worse political crisis to inherit – albeit one that Boris Johnson played a profound part in creating. Three ministers have already resigned rather than sign up to his agenda and dozens more of his MPs are…
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Trump impeachment is back on the agenda
This piece was first published on 22nd April 2019 When last updating the Donald Trump saga, following the release of Attorney General’s William Barr’s four page summary into Russia investigation, I urged caution in drawing conclusions before the actual Mueller Report was published. Now a heavily redacted version has been released, that analysis is vindicated.…
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Newport West By-Election: Brexit backlash could spark Tory implosion
Amidst much election talk – whether of the general or European variety – a more imminent poll has yet to capture media attention. Come Friday morning, the Newport West By-Election may well be very newsworthy. Labour near-certain to win big Voters in this relatively safe Labour constituency go to the polls on Thursday, following the…
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Who Would Win a Snap General Election?
Literally nobody knows where politics is heading. One way or another, voters may well be called to the polls at some point in 2019. With the odds at political betting sites about a second referendum drifting, a general election seems likelier. Labour want one, are committed to pursuing it and have been on an election footing since…
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2019 Political Betting Preview – Five stories to follow
The number of betting options on politics is growing exponentially and 2019 will be no exception. Elections for the European Parliament will make big news in May and have big implications. A Danish General Election will follow soon after while Sweden – who are yet to resolve coalition talks produced by September’s poll – are…
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Theresa May Exit Betting – Three Scenarios
She has become a great survivor, defying political gravity for the last 18 months. Few believed Theresa May could maintain her position for long after losing her majority at the 2017 election and the PM has been regarded as on the brink ever since. The best political betting sites expect the saga will finally end in 2019,…
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Could a new political party crash the markets?
Across the West, political establishments are mired in a crisis of legitimacy. Outsider parties are thriving everywhere and conventional, career politicians struggle to convince or cut through in the social media age. Two of the most mature democracies produced historic political betting upsets when Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron gatecrashed the system. Trump and Macron…