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Mike Pence Won’t Be The Last Outsider Gamble of 2020
This piece first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 29th June 2020 Two months ago, the Betfair odds implied there was a 10% chance that the Next President would be somebody other than Donald Trump or Joe Biden. Despite no challenge materialising to either and the latter securing a majority of delegates to become the presumptive Democrat…
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Latest Donald Trump Impeachment Odds and Analysis
This article was first published for Betfair Australia’s “The Hub” on 11th October 2019 With just over a year until the 2020 election, Donald Trump is in turmoil. Since Nancy Pelosi announced an impeachment inquiry, the President has been beset by even more scandal than usual. His chance of re-election is falling, from 50% to…
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Will Donald Trump Be Impeached?
This article first appeared on 30th August at casino.org Among the few sages that predicted Donald Trump’s historic betting upset in 2016 was Professor Allan Lichtman. He also predicted that the new president would be impeached and duly wrote a book laying out the case. He now predicts Trump will win again in 2020 unless the Democrats…
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Donald Trump Impeachment Betting and Analysis
Throughout the last few, relentlessly dramatic years, it has become increasingly clear that most of the British media is hopeless when it comes to covering US politics. Back in March, I immediately urged caution when almost every outlet portrayed Attorney General William Barr’s summary of the Mueller Report as fact – even the final word.…
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Trump impeachment is back on the agenda
This piece was first published on 22nd April 2019 When last updating the Donald Trump saga, following the release of Attorney General’s William Barr’s four page summary into Russia investigation, I urged caution in drawing conclusions before the actual Mueller Report was published. Now a heavily redacted version has been released, that analysis is vindicated.…
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Cohen testimony was merely the start of Donald Trump’s nightmare
It made instant news around the world, overshadowing the North Korea summit failure, It even knocked Brexit off the Newsnight lead. Michael Cohen’s testimony to Congress was both captivating in detail – laying out the president’s crimes and sparking new lines of investigation into several more – and political theatre. But did it move Betfair’s…
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Bombshell revelations pose an ever greater threat to Trump
Once again, Betfair markets are moving against Donald Trump as the fallout from various legal troubles escalates. Impeachment by the House of Representatives is back down to even money – equivalent to a 50% chance – while his odds to survive a full term have drifted to 1.5 67%. There is money for a 2019…
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How the Trump presidency will end and how to bet on it
Nobody in politics has ever known anything quite like Donald Trump and that equally applies to betting. His entry in 2015 sparked record-breaking interest in the US election and his wild ride in office is generating new markets that would previously have been unthinkable. I must declare a long-running interest. I’ve been completely absorbed by…
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Corruption will finish Trump but don’t bet on removal
Its all kicking off again in what has become the most bizarre political market in history. Just when it seemed that bettors were giving up on Donald Trump leaving office prematurely, the US legal system deals the President a double-whammy. Last night, Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort was convicted on eight counts of financial…
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Prepare for drama as Mueller endgame nears
Chaos in the White House may have become an inevitable part of the daily US political diet, but the latest and looming developments seem to suggest a dramatic new – perhaps final – twist in the Donald Trump saga. Bettors following the various Trump Exit Date and 2020 Election markets should be on red alert,…