Stirling voted for different parties in each of the last three elections and was a particularly impressive gain for the Tories in 2017, who were buoyant at that time under Ruth Davidson. However with the latest Scottish poll projecting 5% swing from CON-SNP since 2017, the 158 Tory majority here is in grave peril. This is a 68% Remain, university seat and the SNP are dominant in Holyrood elections.
Rutherglen and Hamilton West
Hard to see anything other than an SNP pick-up here. They start just 265 votes behind Labour – whom latest Scottish polls indicate a 9% swing against since the 2017 election. This is fertile SNP territory. They won over 52% in 2015 and are well ahead in Holyrood.
Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath
Gordon Brown’s old seat was reclaimed by Labour in 2017 following their 2015 massacre. The SNP are miles ahead at Holyrood level and a 259 majority is no defence against the wider LAB-SNP swing. Hope may be at hand, though, because the SNP have withdrawn support from their candidate in light of anti-semitism comments. Neale Hanvey is continuing as an independent whilst the SNP cannot replace him.
Glasgow North East
This was another great win for Labour in 2017, reclaiming the seat on a 12% swing. Again though, a 242 majority is unlikely to be enough on projected swing and in the current climate. Nicola Sturgeon’s powerful performances in various national TV debates will surely boost the SNP in independence supporting areas like Glasgow.
The SNP are dominant in both Midlothian seats for the Scottish Parliament, so one would think they will find the necessary 1% swing to reclaim this from Labour with relative ease. They won 50% here in 2015, demonstrating their potential to outstrip a mere 43% support for independence in the 2014 referendum.