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Is Texas debate the last chance to derail Trump’s bandwagon?
I’ve long lost count of the number of Republican debates we’ve seen in this extraordinary cycle. They have all been entertaining – in ways never seen before in politics, closer to a celebrity cage fight than measured debate – and in my view, catastrophic for both the image and electoral prospects of the party. Tonight’s…
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Politico Series Part 4: Rubio in freefall after NH debate disaster
This piece was written a few days after the New Hampshire primary, ahead of South Carolina and Nevada. Here, I document the dramatic rise and fall of Marco Rubio on betting markets. First, the market loved him in response to third place in Iowa and the media hype that followed. However as he famously stumbled…
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SC reflections: The state of play after wins for Trump and Clinton
From a betting perspective, the latest round produced a decent night. One winner, one loser from two small advised bets, yielding a small 2.2 units overall profit. My predictions were pretty close to the mark. Longer-term, a mixture of disappointment that long-range prediction Ted Cruz looks less likely than any point since the start of…
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New bets, SC and NV predictions
Forgive the lateness of these updates – I am in the UK on family business before flying back to Las Vegas tomorrow. Hopefully I’ll be joining a fellow British political gambler for an all-night session, trading the GOP South Carolina Primary and Democrat Nevada Caucus – and we plan to go live on Periscope. Follow…
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Nevada Caucus: The Sanders surge gathers momentum
The Democrats may have been consistently rated as odds-on favourite to win the presidency, but their primary process has been left trailing a poor second to the Republicans in both the entertainment and betting stakes. A polite head-to-head debate, in which defining your opponent as a ‘moderate’ rather than a ‘progressive’ becomes a talking point,…
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SC Primary: Race for places behind Trump is pivotal
When asked recently to list the ten greatest political betting markets of all-time, I took a minor liberty in awarding the final spot to this year’s US Elections, pre-empting the biggest ever markets in response to a fascinating and highly unpredictable race. In truth, with over eight months until the general election, the Republican Nominee…
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Interview on RT America’s “Watching the Hawks”
This was a most enjoyable interview, for the excellent show :”Watching the Hawks” on RT America. Here, I discuss the scale of betting on the 2016 US Election, along with the Democrat and Republican races with Tyler Ventura and Tabetha Wallace.
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Politico series part 2: Looking ahead to Iowa
An Election Gambler Predicts Iowa This piece, from January 2016, details my updated thoughts, bets and analysis in the run-up to the Iowa Caucuses. At the time, Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump threatened to derail my long-term betting plan on Ted Cruz. Happily I stuck to my guns and opposed Trump once he had…
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Politico series part 1: Predicting the race ahead!
Why I’ve got money on Cruz instead of Trump. Throughout my US Election Tour, I’m writing a series for Politico Magazine, detailing and updating my positions, plus analysing the trajectory of the race. First, from December, here’s my original wide-ranging predictions for 2016, along with some background to the concept of political betting, my personal…
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Two new bets, plus trading tips: How caution and hedging make for good strategy.
On this huge day in the US election cycle, I make absolutely no apology for keeping stakes small and literally hedging my bets. Anything less would be irresponsible, given the treacherous difficulty in predicting this New Hampshire Primary. The Republican side at least – where the interesting betting lies. I’m quite sure that the market…