-
General Election 2017: Final predictions
When Theresa May called this election seven weeks ago, the overwhelming consensus predicted a landslide victory. Any non-partisan voices suggesting Labour could put up a fight, let alone deny the Tories a majority, were extremely hard to find. Yet here we are on election eve and there are plenty of punters willing to stake sizeable…
-
The best six Conservative constituency bets
National polls are differing wildly but all agree the gap is narrowing. Regardless of their accuracy, that is good news for value-seekers. A problem with the early betting was that, given their enormous poll lead, constituency odds about the Conservatives were extremely prohibitive. That is no longer the case. A crucial factor to remember in…
-
General Election 2017: 5 dynamics to follow during the TV debates
As we enter the closing stretch, the time has come for those make-or-break TV moments, starting tonight with The Battle for Number Ten on Sky News. Theresa May and Jeremy Corbyn will face a grilling from Jeremy Paxman and a studio audience. Then on Wednesday, BBC host a seven-way debate. This will involve the leaders…
-
How far can Labour’s comeback go?
It remains a longshot, but in 12 days time the political prediction industry could be in meltdown. Donald Trump may have produced the biggest upset of all-time but even that shock would pale into insignificance compared to Jeremy Corbyn becoming Prime Minister. Three weeks ago that eventuality was rated less than 3% likely on our…
-
General Election 2017: 5 indicators of the state of play
1) Theresa May’s honeymoon is well and truly over Back at the start of this election campaign, I mooted the idea that the enormous Tory poll leads were unrealistic – a peak moment of Theresa May’s long honeymoon with the voters. After a week of manifesto chaos and sliding poll numbers, it is definitely over.…
-
Why Theresa May will eventually regret calling this election
The Prime Minister should count her lucky stars that elections aren’t determined by manifestos. After dominating the last week’s news cycle, their effect threatens to change British politics. Labour have enjoyed their best week in years, while yesterday’s Tory launch seemed to achieve nothing besides generate criticism from both left and right. Labour are surging…
-
For once, we can trust the Tory favourites
I’ve recently announced two new positions on the Tory leadership on Twitter. New bet on #Toryleadership: 100 units on Theresa May @ 1.45. Explanation to follow soon! — Political Gambler (@paulmotty) July 5, 2016 #Toryleadership bet update: Closing out earlier 15 unit lay of Andrea Leadsom @ 4 at the same price. No need, given…
-
Portfolio updates for Brexit, Tory & Labour markets
At the end of a week which, I’m sure we can all agree was like no other any Brit can remember, let’s settle up and review our various positions and the situation moving forward. First, the good news. Brexit worked out very well. The published portfolio yielded 76 units profit and after two in-play cover…
-
Boris must be regarded the Tory front-runner
Favouritism for the Conservative Leadership race has been switching back and forth between Boris Johnson and Theresa May all day. At one stage May went down to 2.34 (43%) but tonight Johnson is back in front at 2.3 (43%) to her odds of 3.1 (32%). I think this is right, and managed to jump aboard…
-
Next Conservative Leader: Lay George Osborne. Fast!
With much of his party on the verge of open revolt as Britain’s referendum on EU membership nears, David Cameron felt the need this weekend to stress that if the country votes to leave against what are now obviously his wishes, rather than resign, he would try and make it work. We don’t know the…