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Who Would Win a Snap General Election?
Literally nobody knows where politics is heading. One way or another, voters may well be called to the polls at some point in 2019. With the odds at political betting sites about a second referendum drifting, a general election seems likelier. Labour want one, are committed to pursuing it and have been on an election footing since…
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Tories popular ahead of by-election double-header
Phrases such as ‘must-win’ and ‘do-or-die’ have often been used to define the challenge facing parties in UK by-elections. Rarely, however, could such terms have legitimately applied to two different leaders. Yet one bad result on Thursday night could prove ruinous for either Jeremy Corbyn or Paul Nuttall. It is hard to recall a night…
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As REMAIN strengthens, will the market be proved right again?
It would appear that, three days out from the EU Membership Referendum, the market is taking a definitive view. REMAIN has never ceded favouritism but, in the middle of last week, looked as though it might. However a slew of positive polling news for REMAIN and a popular sense that the mood was inching back…
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UKIP must be the value bet to win Oldham
Turnout will be pivotal, and recent history bodes ill for Labour on that score In general, by-elections are the hardest political markets to predict. Opinion polls are even less reliable than usual, asking a mid-term question that only a small minority of engaged voters have spent more than a few minutes considering. Recent UK by-elections have…
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UK Election films for Betfair Predicts
As content editor of the comprehensive Betfair Predicts coverage of the UK General Election, I made a series of 13 films alongside the former Lib Dem MP and broadcaster Lembit Opik, and the political biographer Mark Stuart, an academic at Nottingham University. Here are some of the highlights. I particularly enjoyed discussing UKIP, having successfully…