If we can trust the opinion polls, Donald Trump’s bid for the presidency appears to be doomed. Three weeks from polling day and ahead of tomorrow’s final TV debate, the Republican candidate trails Hillary Clinton across a slate of national polls by an average 7% and sometimes double-digit margins.
By comparison, at this stage four years ago, Barack Obama was effectively tied with Mitt Romney. Thanks to a strong finish, superior organisation and favourable electoral map, Obama eventually won by 4% and a large 126 margin in the electoral college.
With those figures in mind, the key question for bettors less concerns who will be president, but predicting Clinton’s margin of victory. Indeed, once this year’s electoral map is taken into account, even Clinton’s extremely prohibitive 1.2 odds, (which equate to an 83% likelihood), seem an under-estimate.
To become the Next President, Clinton needs to win 270 electoral college votes. According to the latest RealClearPolitics estimate, she is comfortably on course to earn 256 even before ten toss-up states offering a further 112 are counted.
She is favourite in nine of those ten, including 1.07 for Minnesota, 1.1 for Maine, 1.19 for New Hampshire and 1.26 for Nevada. Simply either winning Florida’s 29 electoral college votes or the 15 available in North Carolina would take her over the line. In both, she is merely a 1.4 chance.