Texas Senator has momentum and remains under-priced on betting markets
If you’re following my portfolio of bets on the US elections, you may be wondering why there’s been no new bets advised since backing Ted Cruz for the second time to be the Republican Nominee, four weeks ago.
In short, I’m biding my time, very happy with the early book, for which we could already secure a sizeable profit just by selling or ‘laying’ back Cruz. Compared to the average 3.5% at which we’ve already backed him, Cruz is now up to 13%, third behind Marco Rubio and Donald Trump in the GOP betting.
However I expect that rating to rise further in the weeks ahead, and am looking for 20% and beyond. If he hits that, I’ll bank *some* of the profit, while leaving an extra position running.
Why so much confidence in Cruz? Basically, I agree with what seems an emerging consensus amongst political experts that the GOP race is moving towards a Rubio v Cruz showdown – representing ‘mainstream’ and ‘insurgent’ wings of the party respectively. If that head-to-head scenario develops, one would expect both to be at least 25%.
Yet whereas Rubio is already rated beyond 40% and therefore of limited betting value, Cruz is still ‘in the pack’. He’s definitely got momentum – see the latest poll for the key Texas primary showing him tied with Trump – and critically, we’ve already got what amounts to a cheap cover position on key rival Ben Carson. If Carson fades, Cruz is the likeliest beneficiary.
At this stage, I’m loathe to make a final prediction. There’s no need. My game is about trading politics like the stock market – trading in and out of candidates with a view to secure an overall profit.
For now my focus is the GOP nomination but once we get to the New Year, there will be individual primary markets to consider, then state betting, electoral college distribution, vice presidential picks.
*** From next weekend, I’ll be arriving in Las Vegas and travelling the States for a year, following this in depth. We’ll be doing short films on Periscope, talking betting and politics with American voters. Do get in touch, we’d love to hear from you!