When I was first asked my prediction to be the Next US President back in July 2015, the answer needed no hesitation – Hillary Rodham Clinton. She was favourite on Betfair’s market back then and, despite a rollercoaster ride over the next 16 months including the constant threat of indictment, has never surrendered that position. That market trend is identical to Barack Obama between 2008 and his second victory in 2012.
After the conventions, I doubled down, laying out seven reasons why Trump wouldn’t win. Entering the final 24 hours of this unforgettable race, I’m as confident as ever about her chances, for at least the following five reasons.
1) The fundamental dynamics became fixed once Donald Trump secured the nomination
Make no mistake, Clinton has been extremely fortunate to face this opponent. Had the GOP picked John Kasich or Marco Rubio, I believe she would now be staring down the barrel of a big defeat. Even a divisive figure like Ted Cruz would have roughly a 50/50 chance against this flawed Democrat candidate.
However after an anarchic, damaging process that may haunt the party for years to come, the Republicans ended up with the worst candidate in presidential history. Trump won via his celebrity and ability to monopolise media coverage. It turned the entire election cycle into a referendum on him.
While that just about worked when playing to an unrepresentative primary audience, it is catastrophic for a General Election. From the outset, Trump has been toxic to a majority of Americans. Half of all voters have probably never even vaguely considered voting for him.The more he dominates the media narrative, the more entrenched opposition becomes.