It made instant news around the world, overshadowing the North Korea summit failure, It even knocked Brexit off the Newsnight lead. Michael Cohen’s testimony to Congress was both captivating in detail – laying out the president’s crimes and sparking new lines of investigation into several more – and political theatre. But did it move Betfair’s array of markets on Trump’s future?
Trump rated weak for 2020 but likely to survive
In short, not much. Trump remains 3.15 to win the 2020 Election and 1.4 to be the Republican Nominee. While those represent historically low ratings for a sitting president, punters remain sceptical about an early exit. Trump is rated 75% likely to complete a full term at 1.33, and 88% to survive 2019 at 1.12.
There was, however, a move for first-stage impeachment – passed merely on one count by the Democrat-controlled House of Representatives. Odds about that dramatic development came down to 3.0 following a significant drift since the mid-terms.
Democrat-led House is a nightmare for Trump
These hearings demonstrate why the mid-terms were so important. A Democrat-controlled House means oversight, theatre and political clout to support the plethora of criminal investigations encircling Trump, his family, business and Inaugural Committee.
Cohen’s three days and counting of interviews – two were behind closed doors, and he will return soon with documentation to back up explosive claims – are just the beginning.
In public at least, Trump’s former fixer came across as the epitome of an apologetic co-operating witness. Cohen either confirmed numerous crimes or told the committee precisely who to ask. The evidence given behind closed doors to the House Intelligence Committee was reportedly a gamechanger.
Swalwell: "We truly were at the edge of our seats, listening intently as Mr. Cohen told us information that he certainly did not tell us in October 2017 when we interview him, and he certain did not testify to in the open hearing." pic.twitter.com/LPd1VwSbhg
— Maddow Blog (@MaddowBlog) March 2, 2019