With nearly £90M matched already, Betfair’s Next President market is well on course to become the biggest political betting event of all-time. This main market, however, is only the tip of the iceberg.
For the serious political bettor, there’s a bet to cover pretty much every angle. That includes odds on every state, the percentage totals of each candidate, turnout and the margin of victory. All will be traded in-running on election day itself. Here’s my selection of the best current bets and most interesting markets to watch in the days ahead, with a view towards trading.
Clinton is tremendous value on the electoral college handicap markets
For those of us already on the long-term favourite, the last few days have been rather worrying. Opinion polls were already showing Hillary Clinton’s big lead evaporating before FBI director James Comey threw an October Surprise into the mix last Friday.
Although evidence of the latest e-mail controversy actually hurting her electorally is thin, the market trajectory seems to assume it will eventually take its toll. At 1.4, she has drifted back to around a mark last seen after the first TV debate. Disregarding the potential for a late switch in voting sentiment, though, everything we know about state polls and early voting suggests that is a value odds-on bet.