Betfair punters are fast losing faith in Donald Trump after a terrible week. From odds of 1.4 last weekend, equivalent to a 71% rating to win the Republican Nomination, the front-runner has drifted markedly on the exchange to 2.0 or 50%. In the meantime, principal rival Ted Cruz’s odds have more than halved from 8.4 to 3.9 (26%).
A multitude of reasons can be attributed but principally it is due to the growing expectation that Trump will fail to accumulate the 1237 delegates required to avoid a Contested Convention. That complex, potentially anarchic outcome is now rated 80% likely at odds of 1.25.
The next big race is Tuesday’s Wisconsin Primary, where 42 delegates will be allocated. From originally being considered a close contest, all the market and polling signals point towards a comfortable win for Cruz. The Texas Senator is now rated 87% likely to win at odds of 1.15.
Part of the explanation for Trump’s receding odds must lie in a series of mis-steps since the Wisconsin campaign began. First last Sunday, this car-crash interview with local talk radio host Charlie Sykes went viral.