Beware overhyped, early GOP favourites
Will Jeb prove to be another dodgy Republican favourite?
Click the text below to view my latest article for @BetfairExchange in full…
Thanks in no small part to Donald Trump, the 2016 election campaign has become big news even earlier than usual. 11 candidates, (out of 16 left in the field) will debate in California tomorrow, suggesting the most open race in history.
The fundamental challenge facing 14 of them is simply being heard, in order to build the national name recognition required to compete with household names like Trump and longstanding favourite Jeb Bush. On current prices, this pair are taking out nearly 50% of the book.
At this very early stage, however, everyone is still in play. One good debate performance could transform a candidacy. One slip could destroy it.
See for example how, during the last two Republican contests, the following seven candidates either held early favouritism or got very close to it, only to either fail to reach the starting post or to be all but finished after the first two primaries.
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