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Democrat VP Betting: Which woman will Biden pick?
This article first appeared on 10th April 2020 at betting.betfair.com Now Bernie Sanders has suspended his presidential campaign, the way is clear for Joe Biden to secure the Democratic Nomination. The former VP is now rated a [1.1] chance to be his party’s candidate. If you’re wondering why he’s even that high, that can only…
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Will coronavirus or other indicators determine the 2020 Election?
This article first appeared at casino.org on 3rd April 2020 At every election, various theories are put forward about which indicators will determine the result. Most famously, “It’s the economy, stupid”. Or does success or failure in foreign policy move the needle? Is it all about ad-buying, media coverage, or simply the electoral appeal of…
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Cuomo gamble is merely the latest speculative punt without substance
Normally at this stage of a US Presidential cycle, we would be fully focused on a head-to-head race between the presumptive Republican and Democrat nominees. The former blocked primary challenges to ensure Donald Trump had a clear run. The latter’s primary remains ongoing but the scorecard overwhelmingly favours Joe Biden. The betting signal, however, less…
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How Political Betting Went Global During the Trump Era
The US Election is a huge betting market, lasting well over a year. With sports canceled amid the coronavirus, the 2020 Presidental Election may well be the biggest single betting event of the year. To many Americans, November’s general election feels like one of the most critical moments in the history of the Republic. The…
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Does Coronavirus help or hinder Donald Trump?
As the world begins to come to terms with the shock of Coronavirus, every assumption, every preconception, has to go. That is already evidently the case with regards economics, work and productivity. So it must too with politics. It means that even I – the archest of Trump critics, somebody whom his supporters call a…
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US Election: Long-term indicators point to Biden for President
This article first appeared at Betfair Australia’s The Hub on 20th March 2020 Since I last analysed the race for Next President – before the primaries began – events have somewhat transformed the context and the betting has swung wildly. Last autumn, I was betting on Donald Trump to be impeached by the House of…
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US Election: Biden will pick a woman but beware the Clinton hype
This piece first appeared at gamblerspick.com on Monday 17th March 2020 A fortnight ago, we discussed how the race to be the Democrat nominee in November’s US General Election was developing ahead of the biggest single day of primary season, into a straight choice between Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden – as the latter was rapidly hoovering…
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US Election – Who will be Joe Biden’s VP Pick?
This article first appeared at Betfair Australia’s The Hub, on 13th March 2020 Following another slew of victories for Joe Biden on Super Tuesday 2, the Democrat Nomination looks all but finished as a betting heat. The former Vice President is now a mere $1.09 for the nomination and $2.28 for the presidency. Bernie Sanders…
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Super Tuesday and Democrat Nomination Betting and Analysis
This article first appeared on 3rd March 2020 at betting.betfair.com The eve of the biggest date of primary season could barely have been more dramatic, both in terms of events and their effect on Betfair markets. Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar have both withdrawn and endorsed Joe Biden. Biden the new favourite after day of…
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South Carolina Primary: Biden poised to unite the anti-Sanders vote
This piece was first published on Saturday 29th February 2020 at betting.betfair.com This year is the third time that Joe Biden has run for the presidency. If the signals on Betfair for tonight’s South Carolina Primary are correct, he is about to finally win a race. Biden expected to land big win in SC The…