-
Democrat VP Update: Val Demings is Biden’s Perfect Running Mate
“The case for Val Demings is impeccable. A working-class black woman, who rose to become Orlando police chief – in the most important swing state of Florida.”
-
Trump’s Authoritarianism and Divisive Tactics Are a Gift to Biden
“Voters are deeply unimpressed by Trump’s leadership and management of the twin crises sweeping America. According to ABC/Ipsos, 66% disapprove of how he is handling the Floyd protests and 60% of coronavirus.”
-
Betfair Masterclass Series Part 2: Tips and Strategies to Bet on Politics
The history of leadership contests is littered with bad early favourites. A classic mistake is to overstate the importance of early polls. When members or supporters are first asked, name recognition will be uneven.
-
Joe Biden surges to odds-on favouritism
“The significance of these numbers is that Trump is losing his own, normally loyal, supporters. As I’ve argued constantly since 2016, to win again he needs to win new voters – an extremely tall order given record strong disapprovals.”
-
Betfair Masterclass Series: How to Predict Elections
“The best way to win on elections is good old-fashioned hard work and research in order to understand the particular dynamics of each race. Each election is unique”
-
Will the Dominic Cummings scandal ruin Boris Johnson and the Tories?
Even the least political of newspapers can’t get enough of the story and the latest polls are frankly disastrous for the Tories and Boris Johnson.
-
Polls Make Grim Reading For Trump and Republicans
The trends we are seeing now are not merely driven by the recent effect of coronavirus but are long-term. They reflect what appears to be a marked shift away from the Republicans since Trump took office.
-
Five Narratives That Could Determine the Election
This article first appeared at gamblerspick.com on 19th May 2020 Both the polls and betting odds are remarkably stable. According to the Betfair Exchange, Donald Trump has a 48% chance of re-election at odds of 2.06, compared to 42% for Joe Biden at 2.38. Meanwhile, the constant swirl of rumour and conspiracy surrounding both major…
-
Will Trump’s Scandals Finally Catch Up With Him?
If the Supreme Court rules against him, Trump will likely have to release several years of tax returns and loan agreements with Deutsche Bank…This is arguably the riskiest moment of his entire career.
-
Trump Needs a Strong Third Party Challenge But Will He Get It?
There are no polling signals to suggest Trump will improve on his 46.1% vote share. In an extensive recent interview for The Political Trade podcast, former Bill Clinton advisor James Carville booked Trump’s share in November at 44.5%.