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Local Elections Review: Starmer may be toast but Tories aren’t so dominant
This article first appeared on 12th May 2021 at betting.betfair.com Early Friday morning, I received a text from a friend. “Oh Dear. Labour have died.” At that stage, their catastrophic defeat in the Hartlepool by-election was the only story in town. 24 hours later, after various Mayoral gains, improvements and their best result in Wales…
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French Election Betting: Macron is no certainty
This article first appeared at betting.betfair on April 13th 2021 One year today, the world will be digesting the first round results of the French Presidential Election and preparing for the decisive, two-way run-off. If the current projections prove accurate, we are set for another divisive culture war with enormous implications. I expect Macron v…
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Could the Jennifer Arcuri scandal bring down Boris Johnson?
“The Covid contracts scandal simply hasn’t cut through or moved the needle. The opposition’s best hope is that something else will, and start an avalanche.”
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Predictions of Labour Demise May Again Prove Premature
This is one of the so-called ‘Red Wall’ seats that Labour held amid their 2019 disaster, and therefore more indicative of the national picture than London or Scotland. Defeat would be catastrophic for Keir Starmer.
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Scottish Elections: Have the SNP and demand for independence peaked?
A quite remarkable 61% of Scots think Sturgeon should resign if found to have broken the Ministerial Code. That includes 40% of SNP supporters.
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Is Rishi Sunak the next Prime Minister or a dodgy early favourite?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 9th March British politics remains completely dominated by the Conservative Party. After a decade in office, increasing their vote share with each election, they continually trounce Labour in the polls. This may not therefore seem like an obvious time to be discussing a change of leadership. Boris Johnson…
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London Mayoral Election: Is Sadiq Khan a certainty?
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 1st March We daren’t use the word ‘certainty’ lightly in politics nowadays but the Betfair market signals pretty much imply that is the case in the race for Next London Mayor. Sadiq Khan is up for re-election in May and is rated 96% likely at odds of just…
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Will Trump run in 2024 and if not, who will for the GOP?
Trump does not intend to leave politics quietly and it will remain difficult for rival Republicans to be heard above him, take different positions or risk his wrath.
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2024 US Election: Ratings for the top-ten listed candidates
Previously Trump quite brilliantly managed to divert from his wrongdoings, using an easily gamed media, his Twitter bully pulpit and later the office of the presidency. All that has gone.
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US Election 2024: Harris good value as early favourite
This article first appeared at betting.betfair.com on 29th January The latest renewal of the marathon now firmly established as the biggest market in betting, record-breaking for two cycles running, is underway. Already, £37,000 has been matched on the race to be Next President, in 2024. Goodness knows what drama will materialise over the next 45…