Earlier this summer, I was privileged to be the guest on a superb pilot political talk show, The Cheat Sheet, presented by Melissa Caen of CBS KPIX 5. In this short film, we discuss the concept of political betting, past trends regarding US elections and my early views about 2016.

I should point out at this stage that Scott Walker was my early tip, confidence is evaporating fast! Having initially backed him when rated a 4% chance for the Presidency, I’ve taken a small loss by closing out at 3%.

My feeling is that right-wing populist politicians, whose brand is based on railing against Washington, could be eclipsed by actual non-politicians like Trump, Carson and Fiorina. If these amateurs fade, I’ll probably get Walker back on side, as the Wisconsin Governor would be best positioned to fill such a role.

This is a long race with many twists and turns ahead. The best game at this stage is having speculative bets on outsiders with the potential to become much more competitive as the race develops. For that reason, I’ve not backed short-odds favourite Hillary Clinton yet. Let’s see if Joe Biden declares first before taking a definitive view on the Democrat race.