-
Iowa Caucus Betting Preview and Analysis
This article first appeared at gambling.com on January 29th, 2020 Less than one week out from the Iowa Caucuses – the traditional curtain raiser of primary season – Bernie Sanders is all the rage. He’s into a best-priced 7/4 with Unibet for the Democratic nomination and 9/2 with Coral to become the Next President. Sanders Odds-On For Each Of First Three…
-
2020 US Election: Amy Klobuchar would be Trump’s nightmare opponent
All elections are, apparently, now fought on social media. After 2016, it would be presumptive for political pundits to confidently predict who will fare best in that anarchic environment. I shall, therefore, just leave last night’s exchange between two 2020 candidates here for you to decide. Well, it happened again. Amy Klobuchar announced that she…
-
Politico Series Part 3: Looking ahead to New Hampshire
This piece was written a few days before the New Hampshire Primary. Looking back at some successful bets and my experiences in Iowa. I update market movements and developments in the race. However it must be said, I didn’t see Donald Trump winning NH by anything like his eventual margin! Click here to read the…
-
Politico series part 2: Looking ahead to Iowa
An Election Gambler Predicts Iowa This piece, from January 2016, details my updated thoughts, bets and analysis in the run-up to the Iowa Caucuses. At the time, Sarah Palin’s endorsement of Donald Trump threatened to derail my long-term betting plan on Ted Cruz. Happily I stuck to my guns and opposed Trump once he had…
-
Iowa Caucuses night on ABC – WOI TV
Normally on this night, I would have been sat at home in the UK, up through the night, watching the results on TV whilst trading the race odds in-running. This time around, my first election night in the USA, I was invited to discuss political betting on the live results show of ABC’s Iowa affiliate…
-
Betting markets still favour Clinton in Iowa
As the traditional opening leg of the nomination process, the Iowa caucuses are always a big, worldwide media story. Particularly so in the United Kingdom, and not just because of our ‘special relationship’ with the USA. Britain is a big political market and also home to the world’s most sophisticated betting industry – even more…
-
New bets: Why I’m switching away from Clinton, for now
With Iowa too close to call, there’s no short-term betting mileage in our earlier bet In order to secure a profit over the long-term – and my US election portfolio has nine months left to run – one needs to switch positions frequently, banking profits where possible, and also accepting a small lose when prudent. These…
-
New bet on Marco Rubio for President: Here’s why.
We’re already on Ted Cruz to be the Republican nominee. Backing Marco Rubio now is the perfect cover. As promised when advising this bet on Twitter yet, some more detailed reasoning. Even after banking a profit from my initial position on Cruz, he could net a further 250 units profit. It makes perfect sense to cover…
-
Iowa Caucus Verdict: Oppose odds-on favourite Donald Trump
He has defied all expert opinion and conventional wisdom since the beginning of this race six months ago. One by one, rivals that challenged him have been abused and ended up worse for wear. He has the media dancing to his tune and gives the impression that he could be rewriting the rules of political…
-
GOP Debate Verdict: Absent Trump the runaway winner
A conspiracy theorist might think the row between Fox News and Donald Trump had been manufactured. It ensured that, during a crucial window in which Iowa voters traditionally take a closer look at all the candidates, the entire media focus was on a celebrity and trivia, rather than policy. It also ensured a debate in…