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How and why New Hampshire could shape the election
At the beginning of every US Presidential Election year, there is one pressing task – predict the New Hampshire Primary Why? Not because it is the first contest of the nomination schedule – that honour goes to the Iowa Caucus, one week earlier on February 1st. Nor because this state contributes lots of delegates –…
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Six reasons why the time has come to back Hillary Clinton
Democrat front-runner’s odds look set to shorten throughout 2016 From the first moment I was asked to predict the winner of the 2016 US Presidential Election, my answer has been consistent – Hillary Rodham Clinton. However given her prohibitively short odds, I have yet to place a penny on her. Until now. In my view,…
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Crowded, brutal New Hampshire race could hurt Rubio and the GOP mainstream
Christie surge is thwarting the favourite’s momentum At the end of a dramatic week in which Donald Trump’s ‘ban all Muslims from the USA’ created a worldwide storm and threatens to plunge his party into crisis , the race for the Republican Nomination is shaking up. Today’s big news is great news for followers of this blog’s…
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Rubio hardens in the betting but dividing lines are emerging
GOP nomination could soon be a four-man race Market confidence behind Marco Rubio for the US Presidency hit a new peak today, following the latest TV debate. At odds of [5.9], the Florida Senator is now rated 17% for the Presidency – the only candidate with a double figure rating besides Democrat front-runner Hillary Clinton,…
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Fox Debate Preview: Is it time to forget conventional wisdom?
Could Ben Carson’s media woes actually help him? One Ted Cruz line from the last TV debate demonstrated why the current race for the Republican Nomination has blindsided the commentariat and remains of deep concern to the party establishment. Spelling out precisely how the moderators had gone after each candidate, Cruz opined that “The questions asked…
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Who’s right about the GOP? Polls or the market?
Rubio’s odds in freefall despite poll showing Carson 18% ahead Sunday’s re-election of Turkish President Rayep Erdogan dealt a further blow to the most established means of predicting politics. Erdogan’s AKP won decisively with 49.4%, compared to an average of 43.7% in the last five opinion polls. In fairness, late opinion polls were banned from…
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Betting markets take a firm view about Rubio
But will the polls follow suit? After a couple of days digesting the fallout from the latest Republican debate, there are clear conclusions to be drawn regarding who won or lost, whose stock rose or fell. Jeb Bush’s campaign is in total crisis. The longstanding early market favourite was put firmly, embarrassingly in his place…
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Four pointers to watch for in the CNBC Republican debate
1) Is this the night Donald Trump’s abuse wears thin? With less than 100 days until the Iowa Caucus, the race to be the Republican Nominee continues to defy convention, expert opinion and the wishes of the party elite. Few expected 14 candidates to still be on the stage for Wednesday’s third TV debate, live…
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Is this the beginning of the end for Jeb Bush?
One-time favourite is sliding badly on the betting markets From the moment Jeb Bush announced his Presidential bid, boosted by a stack of mega-donors, the former Florida Governor became red-hot favourite on the betting markets to be the Republican candidate. However as in the last two elections, the early money for this market increasingly looks…
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Unarguably, a great day for Donald Trump
Front-runner extends his advantage in slew of new polls Thus far, while Donald Trump’s bid to be the Republican Nominee has dominated the headlines, polls, tone and narrative of that race, betting markets have generally remained sceptical. It is all froth, driven by a media seeking viewers and fundamentally unreliable polls based on name recognition,…