Month: November 2016

  • Lib Dem fightback to fall short – for now

    Lib Dem fightback to fall short – for now

    Five months on from the referendum, one issue continues to crowd out all others in British politics. The fallout from Brexit and attempts to resist it will dominate the agenda for years to come, shaping the narrative and potentially re-aligning our party system. The first meaningful electoral test of that fallout arrives this Thursday, with…

  • How electoral systems keep fooling betting markets

    How electoral systems keep fooling betting markets

    The US Election votes are still being counted but with each day that passes, this result looks ever more like the greatest electoral anomaly in living memory. Hillary Clinton is on course to win by the popular vote by around 2M votes, yet suffer a resounding 306-232 defeat in the electoral college. This isn’t an excuse. I argued many times…

  • Final US Election Portfolio

    Final US Election Portfolio

    Where on earth to start after the most incredible political event most of us can ever remember? I’ve just returned to the UK and will be writing more over the weekend but for this first piece, I’ll simply settle up the portfolio ahead of wider explanation and analysis. Obviously, Trump becoming president was a catastrophe –…

  • 5 reasons why I’m still all in on Clinton

    5 reasons why I’m still all in on Clinton

    When I was first asked my prediction to be the Next US President back in July 2015, the answer needed no hesitation – Hillary Rodham Clinton. She was favourite on Betfair’s market back then and, despite a rollercoaster ride over the next 16 months including the constant threat of indictment, has never surrendered that position.…

  • Key States Preview: NEVADA

    Key States Preview: NEVADA

    Electoral College Votes: 6 Latest Live Odds  Realclearpolitics poll average These six electoral college votes will be among the most keenly contested as NV has picked every president since 1976. Polls have regularly pointed to a near dead-heat although there could be sampling issues here. Local political expert Jon Ralston has argued that Hispanics may…

  • State of play: Clinton remains strong favourite

    State of play: Clinton remains strong favourite

    Two days out from the conclusion of the most incredible election cycle and biggest political betting event in history, the verdict of Betfair punters remains the same as it has ever since the market opened – Hillary Clinton will be the Next US President. After drifting significantly from 1.2 to 1.44 lastweek, the money is…

  • US Election Betting Portfolio Update

    US Election Betting Portfolio Update

    Trading inevitably involves navigating peaks and troughs in the market. Timing is pivotal to success. Whilst it has been profitable so far and I remain extremely confident about the outcome, on the latter point, I can’t say I’ve played this election cycle well. In the primaries my cover bets on Trump were terribly timed, probably…

  • Five ways to profit from election side markets

    Five ways to profit from election side markets

    With nearly £90M matched already, Betfair’s Next President market is well on course to become the biggest political betting event of all-time. This main market, however, is only the tip of the iceberg. For the serious political bettor, there’s a bet to cover pretty much every angle. That includes odds on every state, the percentage…