-
European Parliament Elections Predictions and Betting Tips
This article first appeared on betting.betfair.com on Wednesday 22nd May. Voting has since closed in the UK but the results are not declared until Sunday night and in-play betting is available on Betfair. As we reach the end of another febrile day in Westminster involving Andrea Leadsom’s resignation and more rumours of Theresa May’s imminent…
-
Next Tory Leader Betting – Dominic Raab is perfectly poised
With the news that Theresa May will imminently announce her departure date, the starting pistol has been fired on the Next Conservative Leader race. In reality, that kicked off before the final results of the 2017 General Election were in and hardened political punters are doubtless managing several positions already. It has been quite a…
-
Poll carnage as Tory and Labour tactics implode simultaneously
Perhaps the best way to understand the stalemate since 2016 and increasingly volatile situation is to see Brexit through the prism of party political games. Decades of opportunism is unravelling Long before the referendum, criticising and opposing EU treaties was a cheap win for any ambitious politician from outside government. Accuracy, detail or the ability…
-
2019 UK Local Elections Review – Five takeaways
1 Tory losses far exceeded worst expectations In losing more than 1300 councillors, these results were unarguably awful for the Tories. Yes, they had a long way to fall and a backlash from Brexiters angry at their failure to deliver was predictable. But the scale defied the experts – the higher academic estimate noted in…
-
Newport West By-Election: Brexit backlash could spark Tory implosion
Amidst much election talk – whether of the general or European variety – a more imminent poll has yet to capture media attention. Come Friday morning, the Newport West By-Election may well be very newsworthy. Labour near-certain to win big Voters in this relatively safe Labour constituency go to the polls on Thursday, following the…
-
Latest Brexit Betting – General Election goes odds-on
This article was first published on March 29th 2019 Odds of 1.86 reflect an emerging consensus amongst pundits that an election is inevitable, given the political impasse. However that could also reflect that we are no more capable of predicting what on earth will happen next. There are plenty of arguments against it. May departure…
-
Which options will emerge from Brexit mega-ballot?
This article was first published on 27th March 2019 for betting.betfair.com In the most extraordinary series of events since the referendum, Brexit could take any number of different turns over the next few days. Having seized control of the parliamentary timetable in a bid to break the deadlock, MPs will debate and vote on a…
-
Newport West By-Election Betting Preview
This article was first published on March 22nd, for gambling.com In this remarkable era for political betting, the word ‘certainty’ should be used with extreme caution. Nevertheless, it is hard to construct an argument for how taking Betway’s 1/6 about Labour winning the Newport West By-election won’t yield a swift 16% profit. Scheduled for April 4th, the by-election…
-
Michael Gove’s plans are falling into place
This article was first written on 25th March 2019 for betting.betfair.com If anyone was still in doubt that Brexit is, fundamentally, a Conservative Party soap opera, the weekend’s events surely confirmed it. As voices from across the political spectrum talked of ‘national crisis and ‘humiliation’, the Tory civil war intensified. Various ministers linked with looming…
-
Delayed or not, a no deal Brexit remains highly plausible
This piece was first published on March 5th, 2019 The chances of the UK leaving the European Union without a deal in 25 days time remain extremely low, according to Betfair markets. That dramatic outcome can be backed at 7.8 – equivalent to 13%. At 5.6 (18%), an on-time Brexit is only rated slightly likelier.…