The one consistent trend in the previous update regarding the latest Senate odds is that outsiders are more popular than favorites. Perhaps that is the consequence of a decade in US politics that has seen polls and markets upset frequently.
The same trend is evident across a wide range of Governor races and even more so in House races. In the former, two favorites who are bucking that trend are the Democrat Aaron Ford in Nevada, and Republican Phil Scott in Vermont.
Pillen (R) -700
Walz (D) +450 (Was +600)
Ford (D) -250 (Was -215)
Lombardo (R) +200
Scott (R) -350 (Was -300)
Janoo (D) +275
Crowley (D) -400
Tiffany (R) +300 (Was +325)
In the House, these trends very much favour the Democrats. Nine out of the following 11 changes favor the Democrats. Monica De La Cruz is one exception in TX-15, where she remains a big outsider. The other is Bill Huizenga in the competitive MI-04 race. This move feels more like a realistic pushback against a very big swing to Sean McCann.
Marques (R) -275
Figures (D) +215 (Was +250)
Boebert (R) -200
Laubacher (D) +160 (Was +215)
Crank (R) -225
Killin (D) +185 (Was +240)
Spartz (R) -600
Ford (D) +400 (Was +600)
Alvarado (R) -145
Dembo (D) +115 (Was +135)
McCann (D) -175
Huizenga (R) +145 (Was +160)
Davis (D) -500 (Was -300)
Buckhout (R) +375
Hudson (R) -250
Ojeda (D) +200 (Was +250)
Fitzpatrick (R) -150
Harvie (D) +120 (Was +155)
Pulido (D) -600
De La Cruz (R) +400 (Was +600)
Herrera (R) -165
Padilla Stout (D) +135 (Was +240)
