This article first appeared at gambling.com on Friday 2nd October, 2026.
The world’s seventh most populous country heads to the polls on Sunday for an election that has pretty much everything.
Brazil’s electorate ultimately breaks down into two bitterly divided left and right factions, of roughly equal size. At this stage, betting sites are reluctant to confidently pick the winner.
Brazilian politics is a tale of political dynasties in a system beset by perennial corruption scandals and political violence. This election could well produce a chaotic finale, with results disputed and even accusations of voter fraud.
It did last time. With clear echoes of January 6, 2021 in the USA, supporters of Jair Bolsonaro refused to accept their man’s defeat, attacking the Congress, presidential palace and Supreme Court in an attempt to instigate a military coup d’etat. The campaign had already seen constant violence, even murders, and there was a plot to kill President Lula da Silva.
Although he denied conspiring towards this end, Bolsonaro was later charged and convicted on multiple grounds related to the plot and various instances of corruption. He was sentenced to 27 years and banned from running for office until 2030. He is now under a form of humanitarian house arrest following health problems.
In his absence, the father has endorsed his son, Flavio Bolsonaro. The son is himself now mired in the Banco Master affair – a tale of huge bank fraud – and now an alleged sex scandal.
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