This article first appeared at gambling.com on 28th September, 2026.
Earlier this year on these pages, we have assessed that Reform have peaked and were deeply vulnerable to tactical voting.
A dual bet on betting sites on Labour and the Conservatives to win most seats at the next election was recommended, following Keir Starmer’s replacement by Andy Burnham.
Reform did perform very well in May’s local elections – lower turnout, multi-party affairs where tactical voting is miniscule – but have repeatedly lost bigger elections and constituency races which, more or less, evolve into binary choices.
Burnham’s bounce looks solid for now
The news for Burnham heading into the party conference is positive. Under his leadership, Labour have consistently overtaken Reform in the polls. Now, following a quartet of MRP surveys from credible polling firms, our earlier assessment looks vindicated.
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