As election day gets ever closer, the signals become clearer. The Republicans are in deep, deep trouble. I’m focused on the betting signals which, as I’ll explain, are mostly pointing in that direction but if you are focused on the early voting trends, turnout or even respected polls, it is hard to see anything less than a ‘blue wave’, and perhaps a tsunami.
Take for example today’s NYT/Siena poll showing a 48/48 tie in the South Carolina Senate race. That we are even discussing South Carolina at this stage speaks volumes. Or Yougov’s Texas polls, showing an eight-point lead for James Talarico and a three-point lead for Gino Hinojosa.
254 Labs/YouGov Blue poll | 10/21-10/26 LV
Texas statewide races 2026
US Senate
🟦 James Talarico: 51%
🟥 Ken Paxton: 43%
——
Governor
🟦 Gina Hinojosa: 49% (incumbent)
🟥 Greg Abbott: 46%
——
Lt. Governor
🟦 Vikki Goodwin: 48% (incumbent)
🟥 Dan Patrick: 45%
——
Attorney General
🟦 Nathan Johnson: 47%
🟥 Mayes Middleton: 45%
——
Railroad Commissioner
🟦 Jon Rosenthal: 47%
🟥 Bo French: 43%— Politics & Poll Tracker 📡 (@PollTracker2024) October 28, 2026
Equally, consider the early voting trends in Nevada and Florida. Or the widely acknowledged surge in Latino turnout, which explains those Texas numbers.
Onto the betting. Regarding the Senate, all seven of today’s changes are against the Republicans. Likewise, all three Governor races favour the Democrats.
Democrats -225 (Was -200)
Republicans +185
Over 47.5 -140
Under 47.5 +110 (Was +135)
Hinson (R) -150
Turek (D) +120 (Was +135)
Marshall (R) -165
Hamilton (D) +135 (Was +145)
Flanagan (D) -1000 (Was -700)
Tafoya (R) +600
Ricketts (R) -275
Osborn (D) +215 (Was +250)
Graham (R) -300
Andrews (D) +240 (Was +300)
Abbott (R) -225
Hinojosa (D) +185 (Was +225)
Masterson (R) -300
Holscher (D) +250 (Was +300)
Crowley (D) -500 (Was +450)
Tiffany (R) +375
Betting on the House districts is livening up in this closing stretch, having largely played second fiddle to the statewide races before. The trends are similar, with 11 of the following 12 changes favouring the Democrats. More pertinently though, is how their realistic map appears to be expanding.
Their ‘par line’ is now above 237 seats, which would reduce the Republicans below 200. Money is coming for 250+, which has seemed an unthinkable number for decades. In the seats that far down the Democrat target list, they remain the outsider, but we are seeing a lot of speculative money on upsets.
It is quite possible that, in these cases, the value now lies with backing Republican favourites at short odds. But that strategy would take plenty of guts in this environment!
Strada (R) -800 (Was -600)
Martin (D) +500
Alvarado (R) -135
Dembo (D) +105 (Was +115)
Murphy (R) -160
Smith Jr. (D) +130 (Was +175)
Rouzer (R) -400
Hardy (D) +300 (Was +375)
Hudson (R) -225
Ojeda (D) +185 (Was +200)
Van Drew (R) -275
Mullock (D) +215 (Was +250)
Cognetti (D) -700 (Was -600)
Bresnahan (R) +450
Pulido (D) -900 (Was -600)
De La Cruz (R) +500
Garcia (D) -275 (Was -215)
De La Cruz (R) +215
Stiel (R) -130
Berman (D) +100 (Was +115)
Cooke (D) -700 (Was -400)
Van Orden (R) +450
