The midterm elections are two weeks out today and naturally the markets are moving thick and fast. The overwhelming trend is towards the Democrats, in line with pretty consistent poll trends.
The Senate races are a perfect example. If the favourite wins each race, the Democrats will regain control by 52-48 margin. Whilst four of those seats currently favouring the Democrats are competitive, there is no hint of a Republican comeback.
Rather, Maine, Michigan and Ohio have moved further towards the Democrats. Furthermore, the next two on their target list – Iowa and Kansas – remain highly competitive, while longer shot targets Nebraska, South Carolina and Mississippi are still in the conversation.
Democrats -215 (WAS -205)
Republicans +175
Over 47.5 -135 (WAS -145)
Under 47.5 +105
Marshall (R) -180
Hamilton (D) +150 (WAS +160)
Jackson (D) -175 (WAS -165)
Collins (R) +145
El-Sayed (D) -275 (WAS -250)
Rogers (R) +215
Brown -225 (Was -215)
Husted +185
HYDE-SMITH VICTORY MARGIN
Over/Under 7.5%, Both -120 (Was 9.5%)
Pappas (D) -1400 (Was -1000)
Sununu (R) +1000
The story is similar for House and Governor betting. Favourites becoming stronger rather than races tightening. Here, there are some slight positives for Republicans, with a few very longshot Democrat targets looking less likely.
Shah (D) -500 (WAS -425)
Feely (R) +375
Crane (R) -300 (WAS -275)
Nez (D) +215
Van Drew (R) -550 (WAS -450)
Mullock (D) +375
Lawrence (D) -185 (WAS -175)
Barrett (R) +155
Taylor (D) -150 (WAS -140)
Wittman (R) +110
Luria (D) -1200 (WAS -900)
Kiggans (R) +600
McGuire (R) -275 (WAS -300)
Perriello (D) +215
ARKANSAS – HUCKABEE-SANDERS VICTORY MARGIN
Under/Over 14.5%, Both -120 (WAS 12.5%)
Acton (D) -350 (WAS -300)
Ramaswamy (R) +275
Kotek (D) -400 (WAS -325)
Drazan (R) +300
