The midterm betting markets are truly heating up now we are in the final fortnight of the campaign and today has seen an acceleration of recent trends. 16 market shifted today, with all 14 Democrat v Republican clashes moving in favour of the Democrats, including some sizeable moves in the House betting. (The other two are in all-Democrat, post-jungle primary races in California).
First in the Senate, Democrats have hardened up to regain control and in terms of the Republicans gaining less than 48 seats. The distinction is important because one of the potentially vulnerable seats is Nebraska, where an Independent (Dan Osborn) is the challenger.
Whereas the Democrats remain solidly ahead in the betting for all the swing states apart from Iowa and Kansas, they continue to tighten up in the latter.
Democrats -225 (Was -210)
Republicans +185
Over 47.5 -130
Under 47.5 +100 (Was +115)
Marshall (R) -165
Hamilton (D) +135
One of the big moves of the day involves the race for Nevada Governor. From behind and then tied until recently, Aaron Ford has opened up a clear gap over incumbent Joe Lombardo.
Ford (D) -200 (Was -135)
Lombardo (R) +160
The most significant action though has come in the long list of House races. Perhaps because interest in them occurs later than the higher profile Senate races. Ten races shifted towards the Democrats, ranging from ones where they were already clear favourite down to longshots which, if gained, would truly represent a ‘Blue Tsunami’. They are now odds on to beat the 237.5 handicap line, which seemed a big ask at the start of the campaign.
Over 237.5 -130 (Was -110)
Under 237.5 +100
Stiel (R) -175
Berman (D) +145 (Was +185)
Van Drew (R) -325
Mullock (D) +250 (Was +375)
Flood (R) -450
Backemeyer (D) +325 (Was +450)
Turner (R) -275
Knickerbocker (D) +215 (Was +500)
Matsui (D) -225 (Was -185)
Vang (D) +185
McCann (D) -140 (Was -115)
Huizenga (R) +110
Alvarez (R) -165
Dembo (D) +135 (Was +215)
Flippo (R) -210
Benitez-Thompson +170 (D) (Was +250)
Cooke (D) -400 (Was -325)
Van Orden (R) +300
Thompson (D) -400
Jones (D) +300 (Was +375)
