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Have the US mid-term markets become too pro-Republican?
The 2016 effect continues to loom large over all political matters, including betting. Before Brexit and Trump, political betting was arguably the most reliable indicator of election results. In the first 15 years of Betfair, the favourite from 100 days out won every major UK or US election. Then suddenly, politics became extremely unpredictable. Bettors…
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2018 US Senate Betting Preview – Ten Key States
Arizona still too close to call Click here for latest odds Click here for latest polls A vivid example of the mountain Democrats need to climb in order to gain control of the Senate is that Arizona is rated either their best or second best chance of a gain. A solid red state that has…
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How will Kavanaugh’s confirmation affect the mid-terms?
With Brett Kavanaugh confirmed to the Supreme Court, the most divisive incident of this most divisive presidency may have been settled, but the culture wars rumble on. The ramifications – whether they be short or long-term, electoral, political, legal or cultural – could be profound. Supreme Court fight has energised Republicans The campaign to stop…
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How the Trump presidency will end and how to bet on it
Nobody in politics has ever known anything quite like Donald Trump and that equally applies to betting. His entry in 2015 sparked record-breaking interest in the US election and his wild ride in office is generating new markets that would previously have been unthinkable. I must declare a long-running interest. I’ve been completely absorbed by…
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US Senate 2018: Backing No Majority offers numerous routes to profit
As the fallout from Brett Kavanaugh’s elevation to the Supreme Court dominates the headlines and narrative, the outcome of November’s mid-term elections remains unpredictable. Few are confidently predicting how the politics of this will play out, and those doubts are feeding into the markets. Democrats slip back for House majority From a low of 1.4,…
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How to play Betfair’s ever increasing range of Trump Specials
One thing nobody could accuse Donald Trump of is failing to spark interest in political betting. From the moment he took office, bettors have been trading the date of his exit date and whether he would survive a full term, not to mention winning a second term. In light of the latest developments in the…
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Texas Senate Betting: A race to define 2018 and beyond
Eight weeks tomorrow, US voters head to the polls for arguably the most important mid-term elections in their history. At stake is control of the House of Representatives, Senate and potentially by extension, the survival of the Trump Presidency. If Democrats win the first, they will likely start impeachment proceedings although they’ll need to win…
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The next big political outsider – Michael Avenatti for President
*Since writing this piece yesterday for Betfair, Avenatti’s odds have fallen from [100.0] to [40.0]. Such moves are typical so early in the race, when it doesn’t take much money to shift the market. I still think he’s a good value pick at [40.0] but equally doubt it will shorten up much more from here…
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Corruption will finish Trump but don’t bet on removal
Its all kicking off again in what has become the most bizarre political market in history. Just when it seemed that bettors were giving up on Donald Trump leaving office prematurely, the US legal system deals the President a double-whammy. Last night, Trump’s former campaign manager Paul Manafort was convicted on eight counts of financial…
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Suburban backlash in Ohio 12 to intensify GOP mid-term worries
The biggest political betting event of 2018 will be November’s mid-term US Congressional Elections. Three months out, Betfair markets rate control of the House of Representatives a virtually even contest, with the Democrats slight favourites at 1.91. Republicans remain hot favourites to win the Senate at 1.37. Ohio 12 is an excellent bellweather for the…