Month: February 2017

  • Final thoughts and predictions on tonight’s by-elections

    Final thoughts and predictions on tonight’s by-elections

    A critical, changing feature of by-elections is that polls are few and far between nowadays. When we do hear about one, it tends to have been commissioned by a faction with an obvious agenda – such as the Labour Leave survey that suggested UKIP were on course to win Stoke easily. Polls have their weaknesses,…

  • Tories popular ahead of by-election double-header

    Tories popular ahead of by-election double-header

    Phrases such as ‘must-win’ and ‘do-or-die’ have often been used to define the challenge facing parties in UK by-elections. Rarely, however, could such terms have legitimately applied to two different leaders. Yet one bad result on Thursday night could prove ruinous for either Jeremy Corbyn or Paul Nuttall. It is hard to recall a night…

  • Political betting goes global after record year

    Political betting goes global after record year

    Whatever one thinks of Brexit, Donald Trump and the wave of anti-establishment populism sweeping the Western world, we should all be able to agree that politics became a lot more interesting and unpredictable in 2016. The combination of drama, unique characters and the touchstone issues in play helped justify predictions of becoming the biggest ever…

  • Clive Lewis poised as punters back Corbyn for early exit

    Clive Lewis poised as punters back Corbyn for early exit

    Yesterday, anticipating Clive Lewis’ resignation from Labour’s Shadow Cabinet, I advised a new bet on the Norwich South MP at 8/1, following on from much earlier advice at 25/1. Today’s article discusses his prospects and the wider Labour crisis.   New bet in light of looming Labour drama: Backed Clive Lewis 20 units @ 8-1…

  • Outsiders look the value in search for an alternative to Fillon

    Outsiders look the value in search for an alternative to Fillon

    Fuelled no doubt by the drama of 2016 and Marine Le Pen’s plausible candidacy, the French election was already shaping up to be a much bigger betting heat than usual before the Penelopegate scandal broke. Now, as I wrote earlier this week, we are looking at a potential re-run of the US election drama. In…

  • Macron the new French favourite after Penelopegate

    Macron the new French favourite after Penelopegate

    Once upon a time, political betting was just about the most predictable game on earth. National elections were won by the favourite. Period. Then along came 2016 and, like just about all things political, all of our assumptions and long-established trends became redundant. With Brexit and Donald Trump fresh in the memory, political bettors seem…