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Archives for January 2017

Corbyn crisis as UKIP assume Stoke favouritism

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Earlier, I announced three new bets regarding the two forthcoming by-elections and on Jeremy Corbyn’s future. The piece below explores the two contests and wider implications for Labour.

The news just doesn’t get any better for Jeremy Corbyn. Facing yet another rebellion from his MPs, this time over the Article 50 vote, today’s Yougov poll puts Labour 16% behind the Tories. Now, the market signals for next month’s two by-elections project historic defeats that would plunge his troubled reign into a potentially terminal crisis.

In Copeland, the Conservatives remain firm 1.63 favourites, despite Labour holding the Cumbrian seat since the 1930s. At 3.0, Betfair punters give them just a 33% chance of retaining it.

Defeat there will be a disaster, though not necessarily terminal for Corbyn, because Labour are already expected to lose what was already a fairly tight seat. This relatively old, white, Brexit-supporting electorate, in an area dominated by the nuclear industry, is precisely the type that feels alienated from ‘metropolitan Labour’ and in particular the leader’s socially liberal, left-wing, anti-Trident platform.

To lose a seat like Stoke, on the other hand, would confirm that Labour are genuinely facing an existential crisis. Theresa May’s party aren’t a problem here and have reportedly given up, leaving the path clear for UKIP to sweep through in another heavily pro-Brexit seat.

Click here to read the full article for @BetfairExchange;

Five immediate challenges facing Donald Trump

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1) Unite the American public behind his controversial presidency or at least gain legitimacy

While there has rarely if ever been a candidate who so starkly divided opinion, there are a couple of adjectives we can all agree upon. Donald Trump is unique on both a personal and political level and pretty much everything since he declared his run for the presidency has been unprecedented. Both terms apply to today’s inauguration and the many challenges that lie ahead.

There has certainly never been a less popular incoming president, nor an inauguration so overshadowed by protest. In stark contrast to the mood music of President Obama’s signing in eight years ago, the rest of the world will see a bitterly divided USA and a new leader with very little legitimacy.

Historically unpopular throughout, losing the popular vote was never going to help Trump win over his critics and the lingering belief that his victory was a result of Russian interference has reinforced that sense of illegitimacy. A chaotic transition process and period, characterised by controversial appointments, a running war with the media and yet more bizarre tweets, has made matters worse.

Apart from his victory speech, Trump has made very little attempt to be magnanimous or reach out to opponents. Doing so in today’s acceptance speech is absolutely imperative. Gaining power merely requires winning more votes than your opponent. Wielding it effectively demands taking people with you. Without building at least a degree of consensus and unity, Trump will struggle to achieve anything in office.

2) The new administration must swiftly demonstrate competence to quell fears of amateurishness

Arguably Trump’s biggest selling point was his total lack of political experience. Now he has to govern, it could become his achilees heel. We are yet to see any evidence that the new president has coherent policies or even the ability to construct a team capable of governing. Only 29 out of 660 appointments have been made.

Click here to read the full article for @BetfairExchange

Hunt resignation piles pressure on Corbyn

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When looking ahead to the big political betting stories of 2017, I discussed the likelihood of a series of by-elections being triggered by Labour MPs, aimed at destabilising Jeremy Corbyn, or at least having that effect. After a second of his fiercest critics quit this morning, we already have two to look forward to.

In the wake of Jamie Reed’s resignation before Christmas, one-time leadership hopeful Tristram Hunt has followed suit. Like Reed, Hunt has a legitimate excuse, in the form of a lucrative job offer. Running the V&A or a highly paid position in the nuclear industry is clearly regarded a better career move than sitting on Labour’s backbenches. Let alone fighting what could be a bloodbath at the next general election on a ticket he doesn’t believe in.

The Labour leader already faces a perilous test in Copeland, for which Betfair punters still rate the Tories favourites to win at [1.71]. Defeat in Cumbria would be a devastating blow but the excuses are at least ready to go. The significance of the nuclear industry, overwhelmingly white and ageing population, make this a uniquely bad seat for Corbyn. Losing Stoke-on-trent would be on another level – a new low in Labour history.

Historically, this is one of Labour’s safest seats. Even in the last two diabolical general election results, Hunt won by more than 5,000. Yet in a signal of just how little confidence gamblers have in Corbyn’s Labour, they were matched just shy of even money early, before settling around [1.75].

Click here to read the full article for @BetfairExchange;

Trump backed for early exit as Russia allegations persist

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If you thought 2016 was a freak political year, ahead of a return to business as usual, think again. Next week, the unlikeliest President in US history will take office and Donald Trump shows no sign of evolving into anything like we’ve come to expect in a national leader.

It is impossible to understate the political earthquake that has taken place or confidently predict what lies ahead. Trump has changed the rules and repeatedly defied rivals, enemies, pundits and betting markets. Yet already people are betting on him failing to last a full term. Money was matched at 4.1 today, equating to a 24% likelihood, that he would be gone by the end of 2017.

Business as usual would involve a new president coming to office with the approval of at worst half the country. Trump starts with a -14% approval rating, with just 37% favorable. By comparison, Obama leaves office with 55% approval and his net rating at this same moment in January 2008 was around 50 points net higher.

Click here to read the full article for @BetfairExchange

Five big political betting stories to follow in 2017

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The Jeremy Corbyn saga continues

Following the biggest ever year in political betting history, dominated by Brexit and Donald Trump, there is plenty of scope for world-changing drama in 2017. As discussed below, there are three major European elections with profound implications for the continent. However in terms of providing betting activity throughout the whole year, the biggest markets of 2017 are equally likely to concern a party whom virtually nobody believes has a chance of winning power.

Like centre-left parties everywhere, Labour are in crisis, with truly dismal poll numbers and deeply divided. For a party with little to say regarding nationalism, Brexit and it’s fallout is a disaster. Perhaps most damagingly, Jeremy Corbyn will never receive neutral coverage from an overwhelmingly hostile media. Every little mistake and electoral setback is magnified, with arch-enemies given frequent airtime to attack the Labour leader.

The first of those setbacks may arrive early, at the Copeland by-election – a seat which Labour has held for over 80 years, yet is regarded as merely 36% likely to win by Betfair punters. There are rumours of many more resignations from Labour MPs who see little future in parliament, triggering a series of by-elections – each presented as a referendum on Corbyn.

While none of that means he will necessarily be removed as party leader – his mandate from two elections is enormous – it will mean endless speculation and therefore betting activity. Besides Copeland and any additional by-election, the two markets to watch are Corbyn To Go Before The Next Election? and Next Labour Leader. In the latter, front-runners Keir Starmer and Clive Lewis are likely to shorten up further. These rising stars are among a small number who are capable of uniting the party and both now have front-line roles with lots of media exposure.

Will there be an election in 2017?

Since 2010, the date of the next general election has been laid down by law, thus ruining a staple of political betting. In the old days, it was great sport for media and punters to try and read the mind of the PM, predicting when they would go to the country. When Gordon Brown famously bottled an early election against David Cameron in 2007, vast amounts were matched on Betfair and a huge gamble foiled.

Click here to read the full article for @BetfairExchange

Could Copeland be a tipping point for Corbyn?

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Compared to Brexit or a Donald Trump presidency, the fate of the increasingly irrelevant Labour Party may seem like small beer. Nevertheless, the rise and widely predicted, pending fall of Jeremy Corbyn continues to compete for headlines and provide plenty of betting activity.

Despite defying the odds, media derision and vitriol from most of his colleagues to win the leadership in 2015; then overwhelmingly defeat a challenge in 2016, there is virtually zero chance of Corbyn enjoying a smooth, successful 2017 with the party coming together behind his leadership.

Rather, following today’s shock resignation of Labour MP Jamie Reed, one significant by-election defeat could trigger another challenge and potentially destroy Corbyn’s leadership and his project. Reed’s Copeland constituency and it’s previous incarnation has voted Labour solidly since 1935 but, in the current climate, this part of Cumbria looks far from safe Labour territory.

Click here to read the full article for @BetfairExchange;