Broadly speaking, the midterm markets have been pretty stable in recent days. There seems a broad consensus that the races are set, with the Democrats on course for overall victory, but quite a wide range of possibilities about the scale.
In most recent days, we’ve seen roughly the same amount of moves for both parties, but today’s update skews clearly towards the blue team.
First, the odds about three gains which would make a Democrat-controlled Senate near-certain hardened up. Meanwhile the biggest longshot amongst their realistic gains, South Carolina, is inching towards a competitive race.
Senate odds via betonline.ag
JACKSON (D) -150 (WAS -135)
COLLINS (R) +120
BROWN (D) -200 (WAS -170)
HUSTED (R) +160
TALARICO (D) -185 (WAS -170)
PAXTON (R) +155
GRAHAM (R)-650
ANDREWS (D) +425 (WAS +550)
As for the House, the odds now imply the Democrats are overwhelming favourites to win these three races and with it, almost certainly control of the House.
Note particularly the moves in Iowa, where the Democrats are now favourites to win three out of the four congressional districts, plus the governorship. Is that an important clue towards the Senate race, where their candidate Josh Turek is still rated the outsider against Ashley Hinson?
BOHANNAN (D) -1400 (WAS -900)
MILLER-MEEKS (R) +700
GARRIOTT (D) -500 (WAS -400)
NUNN (R) +375
MOSKOWITZ (D) -500 (WAS -400)
SINGER (R) +375
