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How long can Donald Trump survive?
This article first appeared on 21st November 2019 at www.casino.org Four years analysing the betting around Donald Trump has frequently involved speculating whether, how and when this incredible story will end. My last update predicted a terrible autumn for the President, beset by multiple investigations, resulting in impeachment by the House of Representatives. As we watch…
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UK General Election Constituency Betting Part 3: Ten Labour seats in realistic range for the Tories
Peterborough Click here for latest live odds Peterborough is precisely the sort of seat where Tories are right to worry about the presence of Brexit Party, whose 29% in a by-election earlier this year was mostly achieved at Tory expense. While that enabled Labour to hold the seat despite their previous MP going to prison…
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General Election Constituency Guide Part 2: The ten most vulnerable Labour seats to a Tory advance
Kensington Click here for latest live odds Scene of a famous upset in 2017, Kensington is one of the most exciting seats of this election. Labour’s majority is a miniscule 20 but the Tories are by no means certain to win, despite their improved national position. Former Tory minister Sam Gwimah – who quit over…
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General Election Constituency Guide Part 1: Ten Tory seats that could fall to the Lib Dems
Richmond Park Click here for latest live odds Considering the Lib Dems are polling at twice the total they achieved in 2017, failure to win this top target would be catastrophic. Richmond Park is a wealthy constituency on the edges of West London that voted by 71/29 for Remain in 2016. It has transferred between…
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Donald Trump Impeachment Betting – Is the end in sight as TV hearings begin?
Political junkies may recall the day of the last general election as a bizarre marathon, which involved watching hours of sacked FBI chief James Comey giving testimony to Congress, before settling down to an all-nighter watching the dramatic UK results come in. In a further twist that perfectly encapsulates our time, events in the USA…
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UK General Election Betting – Too early to assume Farage has landed a decisive blow
The last five years of madness have seen one political betting upset after another. One month out from the election, outsider backers have another to consider. The Conservatives are available to lay at just [1.07] to win Most Seats. Labour are 18.0 to back. The reasons are obvious. They’re double-digits behind in the polls and,…
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Why this is the most exciting and unpredictable General Election ever
This article was first published on Thursday 6th November for betting.betfair.com. If the first day is any sort of guide, we are set for another extraordinary election campaign, packed with drama and uncertainty. Boris Johnson’s Conservatives may appear – according to the polls – to be storming towards another term and perhaps a majority, but…
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UK General Election: Seven known unknowns heading into the campaign
This article first appeared on 4th November 2019, at betting.betfair.com Everything about the Brexit Party The idea of a formal pact between the Tories and Brexit Party looks doomed after the latter confirmed their intention to fight every constituency. It remains to be seen whether an informal pact, where they target Labour-held Leave seats that…
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General Election Preview – Boris poised to batter split opposition
This article first appeared at gambling.com on 2nd November 2019. Whilst the analysis still applies, I must update developments. I’ve added the following two bets which counter-act the No Overall Majority position. (In a dream scenario, both the Tory seats bet and No Overall Majority could win!) Also, the Brexit Party are set to run…
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How Brexit Ends – Two Scenarios
When last updating the Brexit situation and betting in September, British politics was paralysed over a process that has lasted more than three years. Guess what? It still is, although the endgame is now in sight. The most immediate, perilous problem – a chaotic exit from the European Union on October 31st, without a deal…