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Theresa May Exit Betting – Three Scenarios
She has become a great survivor, defying political gravity for the last 18 months. Few believed Theresa May could maintain her position for long after losing her majority at the 2017 election and the PM has been regarded as on the brink ever since. The best political betting sites expect the saga will finally end in 2019,…
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How to cash in on the Brexit betting bonanza
If Betfair markets are any indication of how likely the U.K. is of leaving the European Union on time, then that prospect looks to be fading fast. This follows a truly remarkable couple of days in in parliament which now leaves the U.K in a state scratching their head on when Brexit will actually happen. What…
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Could a new political party crash the markets?
Across the West, political establishments are mired in a crisis of legitimacy. Outsider parties are thriving everywhere and conventional, career politicians struggle to convince or cut through in the social media age. Two of the most mature democracies produced historic political betting upsets when Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron gatecrashed the system. Trump and Macron…
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A March Brexit is becoming less likely by the day
*This piece was first published last Friday, so I’ve updated the odds about an on-time Brexit, which have lengthened further since. The chance of the UK leaving the EU on time, if at all, is falling fast if Betfair markets are a guide. Following a truly remarkable few days in parliament, it is now rated…
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UK Politics Betting – Which party will emerge stronger from Brexit?
On Friday morning on the Exchange, the betting for the Next General Election – whenever that may come to pass – was perfectly tied, with both Conservatives and Labour available to back at [2.06] to win most seats. An accurate reflection of the stalemate seen in polls, reinforced at local elections, since the 2017 election.…
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Brexit Chaos: What happens next?
If nothing else, the last two torturous years should have been an educational experience with regards how politics within the EU and between member states works. One lesson for citizens of all countries should be to take anything their politicians or media say with a huge pinch of salt, for they are evidently more concerned…
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Parliamentary defeat could be Theresa May’s last stand
Crunch time, it seems, is finally here. After over two years of speculation – not to mention several hours during the Cabinet meeting – Theresa May released her proposed withdrawal agreement to the media last night. As the details are digested over the coming hours, the world awaits to see what happens next – regarding…
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Are Theresa May’s Brexit machinations about to finally unravel?
So much for the old idea that betting markets were fundamentally sensitive to media reports. Despite several days of febrile speculation and almost universal agreement that the crunch time for Theresa May’s Brexit plans and therefore leadership has arrived, Betfair markets related to her exit date remain virtually unmoved. Markets backing May to survive ahead…
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Brexit Betting: Don’t overstate Labour’s ability or motive to stop Brexit
Brexit remains – no pun intended – the most unpredictable political process in living memory. Since I last wrote about it, all the main points have come to fruition. Chequers was exposed as a charade. Theresa May has alienated even more Tories by pursuing a widely unpopular deal. A ‘Peoples Vote’ has gained some momentum,…
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Will there be a new centrist party?
Ian Paisley of the DUP could become the first MP to lose his seat under the Recall Act, after being suspended from the House of Commons for failing to declare family holidays paid for by the Sri Lankan government. Under this relatively new law, if 10% of eligible voters in the constituency sign a petition,…