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Will there be a snap election in 2018 and what happens if there is?
Inevitably, the speculation has begun. With Theresa May’s Brexit plan going nowhere as she struggles to square circles between Cabinet, Parliament and country, The Sunday Times reports that Tory MPs are gearing up for a election this autumn. The odds about 2018 have halved in our Year of Next Election market but, at odds of…
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Five takeaways from the UK local elections
Last week, I pondered how bad the latest council elections would be for the Tories. The answer is nothing like as bad as experts predicted. Rather than take a mid-term thrashing, they were tied for projected national vote share with Labour, whose 77 gains were way below the widely forecast 200 target. According to BBC…
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UK Local Elections Betting Preview
It is more or less standard for governments to struggle in mid-term, as angry voters become motivated to register a protest. That particularly applies once they’ve been elected three times and are in the midst of multiple crises. Against a backdrop of the Windrush scandal, Amber Rudd’s resignation and Cabinet and parliamentary division over Brexit,…