One thing nobody could accuse Donald Trump of is failing to spark interest in political betting. From the moment he took office, bettors have been trading the date of his exit date and whether he would survive a full term, not to mention winning a second term. In light of the latest developments in the Mueller investigation, Betfair now have a market on impeachment.
Odds of 2.46 are currently available about Trump being impeached during his first term, equivalent to a 41% chance. Note the rules. For this bet to win, just one article of impeachment must pass by a majority vote in the House of Representatives. The later, decisive vote in the Senate, requiring a two-thirds majority, is irrelevant.
Impeachment vote likely if Democrats win the House
Given that the Democrats are firm favourites to win the House at [1.46] (68%), that definition of impeachment is extremely plausible. Even likely. The temptation and pressure to impeach will outweigh any feared electoral risk. Do bear this in mind if reading my previous piece entitled “Corruption will finish Trump but don’t bet on impeachment”. As I’ll explain, all predictions stand!
First, though, I must reiterate the unique potential to hedge between this plethora of Trump-based markets. At one end of the spectrum, he is 2.94 to win the 2020 Election. However to do so, he would have to pass numerous hurdles, each of which is a market in its own right.
First it is possible to lay at [12.5] that he leaves office in 2018. After that there will be 2019 survival and possible impeachment, even before thinking about winning the Republican Nomination. As explained earlier when laying out some staking ideas, I’m confident that a running, ongoing accumulator on Trump passing all these earlier targets will amount to much bigger odds come 2020. This hedge strategy carries very little risk and could yield big profits.