Month: December 2018

  • How to cash in on the Brexit betting bonanza

    How to cash in on the Brexit betting bonanza

    If Betfair markets are any indication of how likely the U.K. is of leaving the European Union on time, then that prospect looks to be fading fast. This follows a truly remarkable couple of days in in parliament which now leaves the U.K in a state scratching their head on when Brexit will actually happen. What…

  • Could a new political party crash the markets?

    Could a new political party crash the markets?

    Across the West, political establishments are mired in a crisis of legitimacy. Outsider parties are thriving everywhere and conventional, career politicians struggle to convince or cut through in the social media age. Two of the most mature democracies produced historic political betting upsets when Donald Trump and Emmanuel Macron gatecrashed the system. Trump and Macron…

  • Bombshell revelations pose an ever greater threat to Trump

    Bombshell revelations pose an ever greater threat to Trump

    Once again, Betfair markets are moving against Donald Trump as the fallout from various legal troubles escalates. Impeachment by the House of Representatives is back down to even money – equivalent to a 50% chance – while his odds to survive a full term have drifted to 1.5 67%. There is money for a 2019…

  • A March Brexit is becoming less likely by the day

    A March Brexit is becoming less likely by the day

    *This piece was first published last Friday, so I’ve updated the odds about an on-time Brexit, which have lengthened further since. The chance of the UK leaving the EU on time, if at all, is falling fast if Betfair markets are a guide. Following a truly remarkable few days in parliament, it is now rated…

  • How to capitalise on Donald Trump’s inevitable demise

    How to capitalise on Donald Trump’s inevitable demise

    Never before have we seen a bigger driver of political betting than Donald Trump’s blockbuster drama. Seasons one and two saw an outsider become the candidate and defy conventional wisdom to become president. Season three involved a chaotic presidency, culminating in humiliating mid-term defeat. Entering season four, Trump is drowning in legal jeopardy. His ratings…

  • UK Politics Betting – Which party will emerge stronger from Brexit?

    UK Politics Betting – Which party will emerge stronger from Brexit?

    On Friday morning on the Exchange, the betting for the Next General Election – whenever that may come to pass – was perfectly tied, with both Conservatives and Labour available to back at [2.06] to win most seats. An accurate reflection of the stalemate seen in polls, reinforced at local elections, since the 2017 election.…